国债周报：地缘冲突下通胀预期升温-20260328

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in January - February showed significant improvement and exceeded market expectations. The improvement was mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday misalignment, and the high - tech manufacturing industry also played a role. However, the sustainability of economic recovery remains to be observed, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The Iran geopolitical conflict has led to concerns about imported inflation, and combined with the year - on - year increase in China's February inflation data, the upward pressure on inflation may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [10][12] - The recommended trading strategy is to go long on dips with a profit - to - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by the logic of loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Economic and Policy: In February, inflation and export data exceeded expectations, mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday misalignment, the improvement of service consumption, and external demand. The economic data achieved a "good start", but the sustainability of the economic recovery momentum needs further observation. Overseas, the conflict between the US and Iran continues, increasing market risk - aversion sentiment, and rising oil prices suppress the Fed's monetary easing expectations [10] - Liquidity: This week, the central bank conducted 474.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 500 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 242.3 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 450 billion yuan in MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 281.9 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.44% [12] - Interest Rates: The latest 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 1.82%, down 1.28 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield closed at 2.34%, down 4.90 BP week - on - week; the latest 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.42%, up 3.00 BP week - on - week [12] - Summary: The economic data in January - February improved significantly, but the sustainability of the economic recovery needs to be observed. The capital market is generally stable and loose. The Iran geopolitical conflict has led to concerns about imported inflation, and inflation pressure may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [12] - Fundamental Assessment: The improvement of the fundamentals still needs to be observed. The net basis is low, the price is moderate, the policy is in a neutral period, the liquidity pressure is expected to ease, and the discount is low. The medium - to - long - term strategy for the bond market is to go long on dips [13] - Trading Strategy Recommendation: The recommended strategy is to go long on dips with a profit - to - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by the logic of loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [14] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - T Contract: The report presents the closing price and annualized discount trend of the T current - quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the T main contract [17] - TL Contract: The report shows the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TL current - quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TL main contract [22] - TF Contract: The report displays the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TF current - quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TF main contract [25] - TS Contract: The report presents the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TS current - quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TS main contract [28] - TS and TF Positions: The report shows the closing price and position volume of the TS and TF contracts [31] - T and TL Positions: The report presents the closing price and position volume of the T and TL contracts [36] 3.3. Main Economic Data 3.3.1. Domestic Economy - GDP and PMI: In Q4 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.5%, and the economy maintained resilience throughout the year. In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value; the service PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, showing a divergence between the manufacturing and service sectors [41] - Manufacturing PMI Sub - items: In February 2026, the supply and demand sides of the manufacturing industry weakened. The production index decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 49.6%, and new orders decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 48.6% [47] - Price Index: In February, CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year (previous value: 0.2%); core CPI increased by 1.8% year - on - year (previous value: 0.8%); PPI was - 0.9% year - on - year (previous value: - 1.4%). From a month - on - month perspective, CPI increased by 1.0% (previous value: 0.2%); core CPI increased by 0.7% (previous value: 0.3%); PPI increased by 0.4% (previous value: 0.4%) [50] - Export and Import: From January to February, China's export data was stronger than expected, mainly due to the holiday misalignment and improved external demand. Exports (in US dollars) increased by 21.8% year - on - year (previous value: 6.6%), and imports increased by 19.8% year - on - year (previous value: 5.7%). China's exports to the US were still weak, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [53] - Industrial Added Value and Retail Sales: From January to February, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.3% (previous value: 5.2%), and the growth rate of industrial production rebounded. The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in January - February was 2.8%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous value. The growth of retail sales was driven by the high growth of service consumption during the Spring Festival, while durable goods such as cars and home appliances declined due to high bases and the diminishing marginal utility of subsidies [56] - Fixed - Asset Investment and Real Estate: From January to February, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.8% (previous value: - 3.8%); the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 11.1% (previous value: - 17.2%); the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was 11.4% (previous value: - 1.4%); the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 3.1% (previous value: 0.6%). In February, the month - on - month change of second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.4% (previous value: - 0.5%); the year - on - year change was - 6.3% (previous value: - 6.2%) [59] - Real Estate Construction and Sales: From January to February, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 50.84 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1% (previous value: - 20.4%); the cumulative value of new housing construction was 5.35372 billion square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.7% (previous value: - 10.0%). The cumulative year - on - year decline of completion data from January to February was 27.88% (previous value: - 18.16%); the new housing sales data in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has recently recovered, but the sustainability of the real estate improvement needs to be observed [62][65] 3.3.2. Foreign Economy - US Economy: In Q4, the annualized current - price GDP of the US was $3.149 trillion, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 2.23% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 1.40%. In February, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year (previous value: 2.4%); the core CPI increased by 2.5% year - on - year (previous value: 2.5%) and 0.4% month - on - month (previous value: 0.4%). In January, the order amount of durable goods in the US was $321.3 billion, with a year - on - year increase of 10.34% (previous value: 10.59%). In February, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll employment in the US decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4% (previous value: 4.3%). In February, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.4 (previous value: 52.6), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 56.1 (previous value: 53.8) [68][71][74] - EU Economy: In Q4, the GDP of the EU increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In January, the CPI of the eurozone increased by 1.7% year - on - year (expected: 1.7%, previous value: 1.9%), and decreased by 0.5% month - on - month (expected: - 0.3%, previous value: 0.2%). In February, the manufacturing PMI of the eurozone was 50.8 (previous value: 49.5), and the service PMI was 51.9 (previous value: 51.6) [74][77] 3.4. Liquidity - Money Supply and Social Financing: In February, the growth rate of M1 was 5.9% (previous value: 4.9%); the growth rate of M2 was 9.0% (previous value: 9.0%), and the growth rate of M1 rebounded. The increment of social financing in February was 2.38 trillion yuan (2.23 trillion yuan in the same period last year); the new RMB loans were 0.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 195.6 billion yuan year - on - year. In the sub - items of social financing in February, the year - on - year growth rate of government bonds decreased, and the financing of the real - economy sector rebounded. The growth rate of social financing of the household and enterprise sectors in February was 6.1% (previous value: 5.9%), and the growth rate of government bonds was 16.6% (previous value: 17.3%) [82][85] - MLF and Reverse Repurchase: In February, the balance of MLF was 7.25 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 474.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 500 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 242.3 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 450 billion yuan in MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 281.9 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.44% [88] 3.5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rate Changes: The report provides the latest values, daily changes, weekly changes, and monthly changes of various interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [91] - Interest Rate Charts: The report presents charts of Treasury bond yields, inter - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond yields of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy, the Fed's target interest rate, and exchange rates [96][100][101]