铁矿石周报：多因素扰动，矿价高位震荡-20260328

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The latest overseas ore shipments continued to recover. Australian shipments increased to a relatively high level, while Brazilian shipments declined slightly. Non - mainstream country shipments remained stable. Near - end arrivals increased month - on - month. - The daily average hot metal production recovered, with blast furnaces that were shut down for maintenance due to production restrictions basically resuming normal production. There is still room for an increase in hot metal production in the future. Steel mill profitability continued to recover slightly. - Port inventories continued to decline from a high level, and steel mill imported ore inventories decreased at a low level. - Due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the cost center of ocean freight has shifted upward, strengthening the bottom support for iron ore. Negotiation issues have caused repeated emotional disturbances to prices. Short - term ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. [11][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The latest global iron ore shipments totaled 3,144.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 95.5 million tons. Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments totaled 2,559.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 95.0 million tons. Australian shipments were 1,995.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 120.4 million tons, with shipments to China at 1,634.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 47.6 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 563.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,383.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.1 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,271.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.6 million tons. - Demand: The daily average hot metal production was 231.09 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.94 million tons; the steel mill profitability rate was 43.29%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points; the blast furnace operating rate was 81.03%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 17,666.83 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 147.35 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 330.31 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.61 million tons. [11] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Price Spreads: The PB - Super Special powder price spread was 118 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of - 5.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price spread was 159 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of + 2.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price spread was 217 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of + 2.0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price spread was 20.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of + 3.5 yuan/ton. - Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 13.81%, a change of - 0.44 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.73%, a change of - 0.18 percentage points from the previous period. The sinter feed ratio was 73.45%, a change of + 0.61 percentage points from the previous period. The price of Tangshan scrap steel was 2,195 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of - 10 yuan/ton. The price of Zhangjiagang scrap steel was 2,180 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of - 10 yuan/ton. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 43.29%, a month - on - month change of + 0.87 percentage points; the PB powder import profit was - 17.26 yuan/wet ton. [16] 3.3. Inventory - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 17,000.31 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 98.09 million tons. The pellet inventory was 379.66 million tons, a month - on - month change of + 3.02 million tons. - The iron concentrate inventory at ports was 1,647.88 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 41.65 million tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1,965.4 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 16.72 million tons. - The Australian ore port inventory was 8,315.38 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 8.42 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 5,029.89 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 43.98 million tons. - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8,978.56 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 55.50 million tons. [32] 3.4. Supply Side - The latest 19 - port Australian shipments to China were 1,548.6 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 20.5 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 548.9 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 22.7 million tons. - Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 464.4 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 15.1 million tons. BHP's shipments to China were 392.6 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 53.2 million tons. - Vale's shipments were 377.9 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 32.5 million tons. FMG's shipments to China were 443 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 64.1 million tons. - The latest 45 - port arrivals were 2,271.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.6 million tons. In February, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 2,018.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 236.55 million tons. - The latest domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 60.42%, a month - on - month change of - 0.39 percentage points. The daily average iron concentrate output of domestic mines was 47.21 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 0.31 million tons. [48] 3.5. Demand Side - The domestic daily average hot metal production was 231.09 million tons, a month - on - month change of + 2.94 million tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, a month - on - month change of + 1.1 percentage points. - The 45 - port daily average iron ore port clearance volume was 284.59 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 7.8 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 281.15 million tons, a month - on - month change of + 9.2 million tons. [68] 3.6. Basis As of March 27, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 10.61 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 1.29%. [76]