油脂周报：当前油脂价格走势，取决于美伊冲突发展-20260328

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current price trend of oils and fats mainly depends on the US - Iran conflict. Before the end of the US - Iran incident, crude oil prices remain high, and there is an expectation that Indonesia will tighten palm oil exports. The report maintains a bullish view on oils and fats in the medium term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information: The US EPA set the total biofuel compliance obligation at 26.81 billion RINs in 2026 and 27.02 billion RINs in 2027, with large refiners bearing 70% of the exemption quota. Indonesia's president stated that coal, crude palm oil and its derivative producers cannot export before meeting domestic demand. The Indonesian Energy Ministry is considering restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in mid - year. In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, down 490,000 tons month - on - month and up 860,000 tons year - on - year. In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, down 300,000 tons month - on - month and up 90,000 tons year - on - year; exports were 1.13 million tons, down 330,000 tons month - on - month and up 130,000 tons year - on - year; inventory was 2.7 million tons, down 120,000 tons month - on - month and up 1.19 million tons year - on - year. As of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, up 120,000 tons month - on - month and basically the same year - on - year. In the week of March 20, the inventory of three major oils in domestic samples was 1.95 million tons, down 95,000 tons year - on - year [11]. - View Summary: The current price trend of oils and fats mainly depends on the US - Iran incident. Before its end, crude oil prices are high, and there is an expectation of Indonesia tightening palm oil exports. The medium - term view is bullish on oils and fats [11]. - Fundamental Assessment: The basis for Y is 05 + 282 yuan/ton, P is 05 - 118 yuan/ton, and OI is 05 + 473 yuan/ton. Palm oil import profit is - 555 yuan/ton, and the biodiesel spread is at a medium level. Malaysia is in a seasonal production decline with falling inventory. The US - Iran incident continues, and the vegetable oil inventories in China and India are low. The overall view is to maintain a bullish stance on oils and fats in the medium term [12]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to buy on dips. For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides supply - demand balance sheets for Malaysian palm oil, Indonesian palm oil, global soybean oil, and global rapeseed oil, including data on beginning inventory, production, imports, exports, consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio, as well as month - on - month and year - on - year changes [14][15][16][17]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, as well as the spreads between different contracts, including the basis of palm oil May contracts, Malaysian palm oil basis, basis of soybean oil May contracts, basis of rapeseed oil May contracts, the spread between soybean oil May and palm oil May contracts, the spread between palm oil 5 - 9 contracts, the spread between soybean oil 5 - 9 contracts, and the spread between rapeseed oil 5 - 9 contracts [20][21][24][26][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - The report shows charts of the monthly production and exports of Malaysian palm oil, the production and exports of Indonesian palm oil, the weekly arrival of soybeans, soybean port inventory, monthly imports of rapeseed, and monthly imports of rapeseed oil [32][33][35][36]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Total Inventory: Charts show the total inventory of three major domestic oils and the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India [40]. - Palm Oil: Charts display the near - month import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil [42]. - Soybean Oil: Charts show the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills [44]. - Rapeseed Oil: Charts present the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil [46]. - Palm Oil in Producing Areas: Charts show the inventory of Malaysian palm oil and Indonesian palm oil [49]. 3.5 Cost Side - Palm Oil: Charts show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [52]. - Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed: Charts display the near - month shipping import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed [55]. 3.6 Demand Side - Oils and Fats Transactions: Charts show the cumulative transactions of palm oil and the annual cumulative transactions of soybean oil [60]. - Biodiesel Profit: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [63].