工业硅&多晶硅周报：工业硅检验预期兑现，预计震荡为主；多晶硅延续震荡寻底-20260328

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The supply - side production rhythm is stable, while the demand side is weak, with insufficient price - driving power from demand improvement, and the price weakness restrains the enthusiasm for enterprise复产. The cost support has not collapsed significantly, and the industrial self - discipline expectations have been limitedly fulfilled, so the price range is not fully opened [16]. - Polysilicon continues to be in a negative feedback adjustment state. Factory inventories remain high, downstream restocking willingness is low, and actual transaction prices are falling, intensifying the weak atmosphere. The negative feedback from downstream silicon wafers and battery cells is transmitted upstream. The futures price is in a smooth downward trend and is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom. It is recommended to wait and see, and be cautious about left - side layout [18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1. Demand - Polysilicon weekly output is 19,400 tons, showing a slight decline [14]. - DMC output is 42,900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons. In February, DMC output was 163,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons [14]. - From January to February 2025, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 2.765 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 274,000 tons or 11.0% [14]. - From January to February 2025, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 113,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19,400 tons or 20.77% [14]. 3.1.2. Inventory As of March 27, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 544,400 tons. Among them, the factory inventory was 249,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons; the market inventory was 183,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons; the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 111,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons [14]. 3.1.3. Price and Cost - As of March 27, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon in the East China region was 9,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,625 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 170 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygen - passing) had a premium of 525 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 5.74%; the 421 had a premium of 175 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis rate of 1.99% [15]. - According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,545 yuan/ton, 9,712 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 8,800 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 8,994 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [15]. 3.1.4. Supply The weekly output of industrial silicon was 67,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons. In February, the output of industrial silicon was 237,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 82,200 tons. The cumulative output from January to February was 558,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27,800 tons or 4.74% [15]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market 3.2.1. Industrial Silicon As of March 27, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon in the East China region was 9,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,625 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 170 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygen - passing) had a premium of 525 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 5.74%; the 421 had a premium of 175 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis rate of 1.99% [23]. 3.2.2. Polysilicon As of March 27, 2026, the average price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon was 39.75 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 3.75 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 39 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 35,680 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,085 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 4,070 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 10.24% [26]. 3.3. Industrial Silicon 3.3.1. Total Output As of March 27, 2026, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 67,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons. In February, the output of industrial silicon was 237,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 82,200 tons. The cumulative output from January to February was 558,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27,800 tons or 4.74% [31]. 3.3.2. Output in Main Producing Areas The report provides historical output data of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu, but does not mention the latest output data of these regions other than the overall output [33][35][38]. 3.3.3. Production Cost - As of March 27, 2026, the electricity price in the main producing areas remained unchanged week - on - week, and the silicon stone price remained stable week - on - week [44]. - The price of silicon coal remained stable compared with before the holiday. The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,545 yuan/ton, 9,712 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 8,800 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 8,994 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [47]. 3.3.4. Visible Inventory As of March 27, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 544,400 tons. Among them, the factory inventory was 249,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons; the market inventory was 183,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons; the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 111,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons [50]. 3.4. Polysilicon 3.4.1. Output As of March 27, 2026, the weekly output of polysilicon was 19,400 tons, showing a slight decline. In February, the output of polysilicon was 77,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23,800 tons; the cumulative output from January to February was 177,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.63% [55]. 3.4.2. Operating Rate and Scheduled Production In February, the operating rate of polysilicon was 29.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95 percentage points. It is expected that the output in March will be 84,900 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [58]. 3.4.3. Inventory As of March 27, 2026, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 381,600 tons according to Baichuan Yingfu's statistics, and 332,000 tons according to SMM's statistics [61]. 3.4.4. Cost and Profit As of March 27, 2026, the production cost of polysilicon was 44,189.79 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was - 5,663.47 yuan/ton [64]. 3.4.5. Downstream Industries - Silicon Wafers: As of March 27, 2026, the weekly output of silicon wafers was 11.38 GW, showing a slight decline. In February, the output of silicon wafers was 44.27 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.66 GW; the cumulative output from January to February was 90.20 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 4.37%. The inventory was 26.98 GW, showing a week - on - week decrease. It is predicted that the output in March will be 49.01 GW, a month - on - month increase [67][70]. - Battery Cells: In February, the output of battery cells was 37.09 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 4.35 GW; the cumulative output from January to February was 78.53 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 11.98%. The operating rate in February was 38.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.46 percentage points. As of March 27, 2026, the inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories was 6.79 GW, showing a week - on - week increase. It is expected that the output in March will be 46.36 GW, a significant month - on - month increase [76][79]. - Components: In February, the output of components was 29.3 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9 GW; the cumulative output from January to February was 64.5 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 13.77%. The operating rate in February was 28.44%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.73 percentage points. As of March 27, 2026, the finished product inventory of photovoltaic components was 28.9 GW, showing a slight week - on - week increase. It is expected that the output in March will be 41.39 GW, a significant month - on - month increase [84][87]. 3.5. Organic Silicon 3.5.1. Output As of March 27, 2026, the output of DMC was 42,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons. In February, the output of DMC was 163,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons [94]. 3.5.2. Price and Profit As of March 27, 2026, the average price of organic silicon was 14,050 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The gross profit of DMC was 428.75 yuan/ton [97]. 3.5.3. Inventory As of March 27, 2026, the DMC inventory was 47,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 tons [100]. 3.6. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports 3.6.1. Aluminum Alloy - As of March 27, 2026, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 24,020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 360 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 24,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 240 yuan/ton. From January to February 2025, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 2.765 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 274,000 tons or 11.0% [105]. - As of March 27, 2026, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 55%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 59.5% [108]. 3.6.2. Exports From January to February 2025, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 113,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19,400 tons or 20.77% [111].