蛋白粕周报：缺乏确定性，蛋白粕维持观望-20260328

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US soybean prices, raising the valuation of domestic protein meal. On the other hand, the customs' relaxation of inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports is negative for protein meal prices. Overall, the price of protein meal has fluctuated greatly recently, lacking certainty, so it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information: Trump plans to visit China from May 14th to 15th, and the two sides are in communication. From March 5th to 12th, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 36.79 million tons this year, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons. The US exported 80,000 tons of soybeans to China during the week, with a cumulative export of 10.98 million tons to China this year, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons. As of the week of March 20th, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrival was 16.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.48 million tons, and the sample soybean port inventory was 5.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52 million tons. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production is 427.17 million tons, a decrease of 0.99 million tons from the February forecast and an increase of 0.028 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.54%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from February and 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [10] - Fundamental Assessment: The multi - empty scores for various indicators such as the US soybean 5 - 7 spread, soybean import crushing profit, rapeseed import cost, and others are given, and the overall short - term recommendation is to wait and see [13] - Trading Strategy Recommendation: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommend a wait - and - see approach [14] - Supply - Demand Balance Tables: Provide the supply - demand balance tables of global soybeans, US soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, Argentine soybeans, global rapeseeds, and Canadian rapeseeds, including data on beginning inventory, production, import, export, consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, as well as their环比 and year - on - year changes [15][16][17][18][19][20] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price: Present the spot price trends of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu from 2022 to 2026 [24] - Basis of Main Contracts: Show the basis trends of the May contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [27] - Inter - month Spread: Display the 5 - 9 month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [30] - Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread: Present the spreads between the May and September contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [33] 3.3. Supply Side - US Soybean Planting Progress: Include the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [39][42] - Weather Conditions: Compare the precipitation of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina with the same - period average, and provide the precipitation and temperature anomalies of soybean - producing areas [46][49] - US Soybean Export Progress: Show the current and next - year market - year cumulative signing volumes, exports to China, and China's monthly imports of soybeans and rapeseeds [56][59][62] - China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation: Present the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [65] - Brazilian Soybean Export Situation: Show the monthly export volume and exports to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025, as well as the weekly and cumulative shipments to China [68][71] - Argentine Soybean Shipment to China: Show the weekly and cumulative shipments of Argentine soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 [74] 3.4. Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory: Present the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [79] - Protein Meal Inventory: Show the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [82] - Protein Meal Crushing Profit: Display the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 [85] 3.5. Demand Side - Protein Meal Demand: Show the cumulative transactions and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [88] - Farming Profit: Present the per - head profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 [91]