每周高频跟踪20260328：涨价效应初步兑现-20260328

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating information for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth week of March 2026, the situation between the US and Iran remained tense, with oil prices rising at a high level. The increase in transportation costs began to support the ex - factory prices of upstream material manufacturing industries. The improvement in weather since March led to an increase in demand for investment products driven by major project construction, and the demand for rebar has significantly increased in the past two weeks [3][30]. - In terms of inflation, food prices continued to decline, and pork prices continued to weaken. In terms of exports, the average monthly throughput of port container shipping in March was relatively weak year - on - year. The main shipping demand was basically stable, and freight rates continued to strengthen due to energy costs. In terms of investment, cement prices rose for two consecutive weeks, the apparent demand for rebar continued to recover rapidly, and major projects supported construction demand [3][30]. - In the real estate sector, the end - of - month sprint effect of new home sales was evident, and the weekly transactions of second - hand homes also showed a small year - on - year positive growth. For the bond market, the geopolitical situation continued to cause disturbances, and the transmission of high oil prices to upstream raw material prices began to materialize. The construction performance in March was not weak, and it is expected that the PMI in March will return above the boom - bust line [3][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Inflation - related - Food prices continued to decline. The average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 1.8% week - on - week, and the average in March decreased by 9.4% month - on - month, with the decline expanding. Vegetable prices decreased by 0.9% week - on - week. The decline in food prices continued to narrow, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreasing by 0.8% and 0.9% respectively week - on - week [9]. 3.2 Import and Export - related - Due to continuous geopolitical disturbances, most freight rates increased. The CCFI index increased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the SCFI index increased by 7.0% week - on - week. The tense geopolitical situation continued to affect the relevant shipping markets, and most long - haul shipping routes saw an increase in freight rates this week [10]. - In terms of port transportation volume, from March 16th to March 22nd, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 3.7% and 0.8% respectively week - on - week, with a single - week year - on - year increase of 9.4% and a decrease of 2.7%. On a monthly average basis, in March, they increased by 5.5% and decreased by 3.9% year - on - year, indicating a slowdown in the overall export rhythm in March [10]. - The dry bulk freight index mostly declined. Affected by factors such as oil prices, the freight levels of voyage charter routes in the international dry bulk shipping market decreased [10]. 3.3 Industry - related - Coal prices accelerated their rise. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 3.8% week - on - week, turning from a decline to an increase. National temperatures continued to warm, and the load of residential electricity decreased, but industrial electricity consumption provided support. The supply and consumption of power plants remained balanced overall [15]. - The price of rebar remained the same as last week. The social inventory of rebar decreased by 1.6% week - on - week, with a faster inventory reduction than last week. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 8.4% week - on - week, indicating that construction activities were accelerating, and rebar was gradually entering the consumption peak season [15]. - The asphalt production rate continued to decline. This week, the production rate of asphalt plants decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 19.3%. Geopolitical factors increased the uncertainty of asphalt raw material supply, and asphalt production decreased week - on - week [15]. - The decline in copper prices continued to widen. This week, the average price of copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals market decreased by 3.3% week - on - week, with the decline further expanding. Geopolitical conflicts remained unresolved, risk appetite was suppressed, and the strong US dollar continued to suppress copper prices [18]. - The decline in glass futures prices narrowed. This week, the spot trading sentiment weakened slightly. The purchasing enthusiasm of middle and downstream enterprises decreased slightly, and enterprises mainly focused on digesting inventory. The supply - demand pattern of glass was weak, and it is expected that prices will fluctuate in the short term [18]. 3.4 Investment - related - Cement prices continued to rise. This week, the cement price index increased by 0.3% week - on - week, rising for the second consecutive week, but the increase was narrower than last week. The cement shipping rate increased slightly by 2.3 percentage points to 32.9%, but it was still lower than the same period last year [21]. - New home sales increased further, showing an end - of - month sprint effect. As of Friday this week, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities increased by 12.4% week - on - week and 25% year - on - year. As of March 27th, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities (7 - day rolling sum) increased by 41.8% year - on - year on a lunar - aligned basis, showing an improvement compared to last week [25]. - Second - hand home sales continued to recover. As of Friday this week, the transaction area of second - hand homes in 17 cities increased by 4.6% week - on - week and decreased by 10.9% year - on - year, with the year - on - year decline slightly expanding. As of March 27th, the transaction of second - hand homes (7 - day rolling sum) increased by 5.6% year - on - year on a lunar - aligned basis, and the "spring market" performance was slightly better than the same period last year [25]. 3.5 Consumption - related - In the third week of March, the retail sales of passenger cars showed a year - on - year negative growth. From March 16th to March 22nd, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 512,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 7% and a month - on - month increase of 62% compared to the same period in February. From March 1st to 22nd, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 920,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 19% [27]. - The average daily subway passenger volume in 25 cities decreased slightly. From last Saturday to this Friday, the average daily subway passenger volume in 25 cities was 3.241 million person - times, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. The travel enthusiasm continued to decline [28]. - International oil prices remained high and rose. As of March 27th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 0.3% and 1.4% respectively week - on - week compared to last Friday, reaching $112.6 per barrel and $99.6 per barrel. The reduction in supply from major Middle Eastern oil - producing countries supported the rise in oil prices [28].