地缘冲突扰动仍存，玻纯高库存驱动向下

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views Glass - Middle East conflict may lead to rising energy prices, affecting glass futures sentiment [5] - Last week, two glass production lines underwent cold repair, reducing output. Current ignition and cold - repair expectations coexist, with spot prices having a significant impact. Glass futures and spot prices declined last week, speculative demand cooled, and apparent demand weakened. High mid - upstream inventory and approaching delivery create negative feedback pressure on the futures - spot market, which is bearish for the market. Attention should be paid to whether demand recovery can drive mid - upstream inventory reduction [5] - Energy price changes have less impact on the glass futures market, and fundamental factors play a more important role. Given the high mid - upstream inventory and approaching delivery, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach. The glass index is expected to range between 1080 - 1180. Key events to watch include downstream demand, glass factory inventory, and glass spot prices [5] Soda Ash - Middle East conflict may lead to rising energy prices, affecting soda ash futures sentiment [6] - The price of ammonium chloride, a by - product of the union - alkali process, has risen, improving the profits of some alkali plants. Soda ash weekly output reached a new high. The output of float and photovoltaic glass declined, putting pressure on the demand side. In the long run, high supply and weak demand mean the inventory build - up trend of soda ash is hard to reverse, which is bearish for the market. High alkali plant inventory is expected to create negative feedback pressure on the futures - spot market near delivery [6] - Energy price changes still affect the soda ash futures market. In a situation of loose supply and demand, the soda ash fundamentals are bearish, and the market risk is high. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach. The soda ash index is expected to range between 1220 - 1350. Key events to watch include alkali plant maintenance, alkali plant inventory build - up, and glass output [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Price - As of March 20, the market price of 5mm float glass in Central China was 1060 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. In North China, it was 1070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The mainstream glass market prices were stable with a slight decline [11] Supply - Last week, two production lines underwent cold repair, and the output continued to decline. Ignition and cold - repair expectations coexist, with spot prices having a significant impact. Last week, the float glass output was 1.0223 million tons (- 11,000 tons), and the national float glass operating rate was 70.56% (- 0.49%) [15] Demand - Downstream production resumed, and the operating rate of Low - e glass was higher than the same period last year. Last week, both the futures and spot prices declined, speculative demand cooled, and traders' inventory was reduced. Glass apparent demand decreased. Last week, the operating rate of Low - e glass was 43.8% (+ 2.2%), and the weekly apparent demand for float glass was 21.8595 million weight boxes (- 2.594 million weight boxes) [19] Inventory - Glass futures and spot prices declined, speculative demand cooled, traders' inventory was reduced, and the reduction rate of glass factory inventory slowed down. Current mid - upstream inventory is at a high level. Near the delivery month, the negative feedback pressure on the futures - spot market is large, which is bearish for the market. Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 74.436 million weight boxes (- 1.413 million weight boxes); Hubei factory inventory was 7.81 million weight boxes (- 70,000 weight boxes); Shahe factory inventory was 3.8896 million weight boxes (- 450,400 weight boxes); Shahe traders' inventory was 8.16 million weight boxes (- 560,000 weight boxes) [23] - In East China, the overall inventory decreased slightly, but the negotiation atmosphere weakened. Some original sheet enterprises were active in raising prices, and a small number of downstream enterprises stocked up before the price increase, while most took goods based on rigid demand. In Central China, the shipment situation varied, with the overall production - sales ratio exceeding 100% on some days, but being relatively weak on some periods due to weather and market sentiment. Last week, the ending inventory of glass factories in East China was 13.8042 million weight boxes (- 276,800 weight boxes); in North China, it was 11.9596 million weight boxes (- 720,400 weight boxes); in Southwest China, it was 13.646 million weight boxes (- 114,000 weight boxes); in Central China, it was 9.35 million weight boxes (- 120,000 weight boxes) [27] Cost - Last week, glass costs showed mixed trends. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1339 yuan/ton (+ 2 yuan/ton); using coal - made gas was 1017 yuan/ton (- 2 yuan/ton); using petroleum coke was 1116 yuan/ton (+ 17 yuan/ton) [31] Profit - Last week, glass profits showed mixed trends. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 87.12 yuan/ton (+ 19.57 yuan/ton); using coal - made gas was - 22.24 yuan/ton (+ 17.14 yuan/ton); using petroleum coke was - 21.78 yuan/ton (- 14.28 yuan/ton) [36] Basis and Spread - As of March 20, the glass 05 basis was 16, a week - on - week increase of 81; the spread between the 5 - 9 contracts was - 127, a week - on - week decrease of 14. The glass spot price was stable with a slight decline. Last week, the futures market sentiment declined significantly, and the decline of near - month contracts was greater than that of far - month contracts. Therefore, the basis strengthened, and the spread weakened. The current basis is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, mainly due to the deterioration of the spot supply - demand pattern [40] Soda Ash Price - As of March 20, the market price of light soda ash in Qinghai was 970 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the market price of heavy soda ash in Qinghai was 1192 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The mainstream light soda ash prices were stable, while heavy soda ash prices were weak [45] Supply - The price of ammonium chloride, a by - product of the union - alkali process, has risen, improving the profits of some alkali plants. Soda ash weekly output reached a new high. The current weekly output is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. With the continued commissioning of new production capacity, soda ash output may further increase. Last week, soda ash output was 818,100 tons (+ 8900 tons), including 384,100 tons of light soda ash (+ 3200 tons) and 434,000 tons of heavy soda ash (+ 5700 tons) [49] Demand - Float glass production lines underwent cold repair, and output declined. Photovoltaic glass output also decreased month - on - month. Overall, the demand for heavy soda ash is under pressure, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. On March 20, the daily output of float glass was 144,925 tons (- 2000 tons), and the daily output of photovoltaic glass was 89,200 tons (- 160 tons), with a total daily output of 234,125 tons (- 2160 tons) [54] Inventory - Affected by the purchasing and提货 of the middle - stream, alkali plant inventory decreased. Current alkali plant inventory is at a high level. Near delivery, the negative feedback pressure on the futures - spot market is large, which is bearish for the market. The current weekly supply of soda ash is at a historical high level, glass output is continuously declining, demand is weak, and the inventory build - up trend of alkali plants is hard to reverse. Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.8538 million tons (- 77,900 tons), including 963,100 tons of light soda ash (- 50,500 tons) and 890,700 tons of heavy soda ash (- 27,400 tons) [59] Cost - According to Steel Union data, last week, soda ash costs declined. In North China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process was 1373.3 yuan/ton (- 0.9 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process was 1293.3 yuan/ton (- 0.9 yuan/ton); in East China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the union - alkali process was 1052.5 yuan/ton (- 61.5 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the union - alkali process was 972.5 yuan/ton (- 61.5 yuan/ton) [63] Profit - According to Steel Union data, last week, soda ash profits increased. In North China, the gross profit of heavy soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process was - 93.3 yuan/ton (+ 0.9 yuan/ton), and the gross profit of light soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process was - 43.3 yuan/ton (+ 0.9 yuan/ton); in East China, the gross profit of heavy soda ash using the union - alkali process was 147.5 yuan/ton (+ 61.5 yuan/ton), and the gross profit of light soda ash using the union - alkali process was 277.5 yuan/ton (+ 61.5 yuan/ton) [67] Basis and Spread - As of March 20, the basis of the soda ash 05 contract was - 10, a week - on - week increase of 10; the spread between the 5 - 9 contracts was - 72, a week - on - week decrease of 14. The soda ash spot price was weak. Last week, the futures market sentiment declined significantly, and the decline of near - month contracts was greater than that of far - month contracts. Therefore, the basis strengthened, and the spread weakened. The current basis is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, mainly due to the deterioration of the spot supply - demand pattern [71]