地缘冲突扰动较大下游补库需求上升

Report Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Views Coke - The trading weight of the energy substitution logic increases, and the fundamentals have an insignificant impact on the futures price. In the short term, the price fluctuates greatly, so it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium to long term, the price is expected to be moderately strong. The operating range of the coke index is expected to be between 1790 - 1950. Key events to watch include coke price increases/decreases, hot metal production, and coke enterprise inventories [6]. - The escalation of the Middle - East conflict may lead to a further increase in energy prices. Currently, coke is mainly driven by the energy substitution and oil - coal ratio logics, with a relatively high influence weight, while the weight of its own fundamentals decreases. If the global crude oil supply - demand tightens further, the international coal demand will increase, driving up international coal prices, and coke prices will follow the rise of coking coal prices. Some coke enterprises in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of price increases last Friday, and the implementation needs to be monitored. The prices of coking by - products have risen, improving the profits of coke enterprises and increasing coke production. Steel mills in Hebei have resumed production, increasing hot metal production. Rising energy prices stimulate downstream restocking, and the sustainability of restocking needs to be monitored. Both supply and demand of coke have increased, and the fundamentals have an insignificant impact on the futures price [7]. Coking Coal - The trading weight of the energy substitution logic increases, and the fundamentals have an insignificant impact on the futures price. In the medium to long term, the price is expected to be moderately strong. The near - month contracts face delivery pressure, and the 05 contract is gradually being rolled over to the 09 contract. Risk control is necessary. The operating range of the coking coal index is expected to be between 1250 - 1330 - 1400. Key events to watch include domestic coal mine production, Mongolian coal port inventories, and coal mine inventories [9]. - The escalation of the Middle - East conflict may lead to a further increase in energy prices. Currently, coking coal is mainly driven by the energy substitution and oil - coal ratio logics, with a relatively high influence weight, while the weight of its own fundamentals decreases. If the global crude oil supply - demand tightens further, the international coal demand will increase, driving up international coal prices, and coking coal prices will follow the rise. Domestic coal mine supply has increased month - on - month, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level, resulting in a relatively sufficient supply of coking coal. In the short term, coke production has increased. In the medium to long term, hot metal production is expected to recover, increasing coke demand, which will support coking coal demand to some extent. Rising energy prices stimulate downstream restocking, which may support spot and futures prices. Currently, Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level, and port inventories are also high, which may bring certain delivery pressure and have a negative impact on near - month contracts [10]. Summary by Directory Coke Price and Production - As of March 20, the ex - warehouse price of Grade - 1 coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal in Tangshan was 1435 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton. Coke prices remained stable, while coking coal prices in the mainstream market showed a strong trend [13]. - Affected by the rising prices of chemical products, the profits of coke enterprises have increased, and the coke production of both coke enterprises and steel mills has slightly rebounded. As of March 20, the daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants was 64.24 tons (+0.34), the daily average coke production of 247 steel mill coking plants was 47.31 tons (+0.31), and the total coke production of all - sample coke enterprises and 247 steel mills was 111.55 tons (+0.65) [19]. Coke Demand and Inventory - Steel mills in Hebei have resumed production, and hot metal production has increased significantly. As of March 20, the daily average hot metal production was 228.15 tons (+6.95); the weekly total production of five major steel products was 839.82 tons (+18.85); the profitability rate of steel mills was 42.42% (+1.29); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.53% (+2.61); and the blast furnace operating rate was 79.78% (+1.44) [27]. - Rising energy prices have stimulated downstream restocking. As of March 20, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 94.23 tons (-6.2); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 688.18 tons (+0.63); the total inventory of four major ports was 199.13 tons (+2.75); and the total coke inventory was 981.54 tons (-2.82). The inventory available days of 247 steel mills was 12.74 days (-0.43) [31][34]. Coke Basis and Spread - As of March 20, the warehouse - receipt price of Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1616 yuan/ton, the basis of the 05 contract was - 125, a week - on - week decrease of 3; the spread between the 5 - 9 contracts was - 75, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5. The spot price remained stable, and the futures price fluctuated last week. Therefore, the basis and spread weakened slightly. The current basis is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, mainly because the market is more pessimistic about the spot supply - demand pattern this year than in previous years, and the spot price is under significant pressure [38]. Coking Coal Supply and Inventory - The capacity utilization rate of coal mines has slightly rebounded. With the rise of coking coal spot prices and international energy prices, domestic coal mine supply is expected to further increase. As of March 20, the daily average production of raw coal from 523 sample mines was 196.86 tons (+3.25), and the operating rate was 88.59% (+1.43); the daily average production of 314 sample coal washing plants was 24.31 tons (+1.23), and the operating rate was 33.01% (+2.01) [44]. - Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level. Rising international energy prices have led to an expectation of rising coal prices, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has rebounded. Last week, coke enterprises restocked significantly, and coal mine inventories decreased significantly. As of March 20, the total port inventory was 264.95 tons (-2.6); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 773.93 tons (-3.7); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1005.03 tons (+35.6); the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 254.09 tons (-23.59); and the total coking coal inventory was 2298 tons (+5.71). The available days of coking coal inventory for 230 independent coking plants was 12.55 days (+0.41); the available days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel enterprises was 12.3 days (-0.14) [54]. Coking Coal Basis and Spread - As of March 20, the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal in Tangshan was 1213 yuan/ton, the basis of the 05 contract was 42, a week - on - week increase of 53; the spread between the 5 - 9 contracts was - 116, a week - on - week decrease of 17.5. The spot price showed a strong trend, and the futures price fluctuated last week. The far - month contract increased more than the near - month contract. Therefore, the basis strengthened, and the spread weakened. The future driving directions of the basis and spread mainly depend on energy prices and supply - side conditions [58].