有色金属海外季报：Maaden2025Q4氧化铝产量为46.6万吨，原铝销售量为25.8万吨

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the industry, with expected growth in production and revenue across various segments [4][6] - The financial performance for Q4 2025 shows a revenue increase of 7% year-on-year, reaching $2.8 billion, and an EBITDA growth of 30%, totaling $1.2 billion [6] Production and Pricing Summary Phosphate - Q4 2025 DAP production was 1.754 million tons, a 5% increase year-on-year, with an annual production of 6.723 million tons, up 9% [2][9] - Q4 2025 average realized price for DAP was $705 per ton, a 12% increase year-on-year, while the annual average price was $695 per ton, up 19% [2][9] Aluminum - Q4 2025 alumina production was 466,000 tons, a 4% increase year-on-year, with an annual production of 1.891 million tons, up 1% [3][10] - Q4 2025 average realized price for alumina was $327 per ton, down 50% year-on-year, while the annual average price was $422 per ton, down 13% [3][10] Gold - Q4 2025 gold production was 133,000 ounces, a 7% decrease year-on-year, with an annual production of 478,000 ounces, down 4% [5][11] - Q4 2025 average realized price for gold was $4,213 per ounce, a 57% increase year-on-year, while the annual average price was $3,511 per ounce, up 46% [5][11] 2026 Outlook - Phosphate: Expected DAP production between 6.5 million to 7.1 million tons; ammonia production between 3 million to 3.2 million tons [7] - Aluminum: Expected alumina production between 1.8 million to 1.9 million tons; aluminum production between 0.95 million to 1.02 million tons [7] - Gold: Expected gold production between 470,000 to 515,000 ounces; AISC projected between $1,380 to $1,500 per ounce [7] Capital Expenditure Guidance - Total capital expenditure for 2026 is estimated at $4.15 billion, with $800 million for sustaining capital and $3.35 billion for growth capital [7][12]