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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The apple market will mainly experience wide - range fluctuations within a certain range, and short - term attention should be paid to the stocking for the Tomb - sweeping Festival and consumption during the festival. The price difference between high - quality and low - quality apples is likely to widen, and the AP2605 contract may show a wide - range oscillation pattern. Mid - to long - term market trends will revolve around orchard destocking and new - season apple growth [1][2][40]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In the first quarter of 2026, apple futures fluctuated widely. The main contract saw significant position reduction as long - positions took profits and exited. Due to quality issues, the number of merchants in Shandong's apple - producing areas was small, and cold - storage transactions were average. Coupled with a month - on - month decline in fresh apple exports in February, the market trended weakly [7]. 2. Apple Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Tight Supply of High - Quality Apples - As of March 26, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was about 3.8947 million tons, 217,900 tons lower than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level in the same period in the past seven years. Shandong had about 1.7759 million tons, Shaanxi about 963,800 tons, and non - main producing areas about 1.155 million tons. The proportion of high - quality apples was low [10]. 2.2 Festival Stocking and Increasing Out - bound Volume - As of March 26, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 29.45%, 1.69 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From March 19 - 25, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.24 percentage points, with a destocking rate of 47.07%. Traders started stocking for the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and the cold - storage out - bound volume was expected to increase. High - quality apples were in short supply, and prices were expected to remain firm [14]. 2.3 Decrease in Fresh Apple Imports in February (Month - on - Month) and Increase (Year - on - Year) - In February 2026, fresh apple imports were 2,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.51% and a year - on - year increase of 17.96%. Due to the decline in new - season apple production and quality, import demand was expected to increase, but the overall import scale was expected to remain at the current level [21]. 2.4 Increase in Fresh Apple Exports in February (Year - on - Year) - In February 2026, fresh apple exports were about 79,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.83% and a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. The first quarter is the peak export season, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand [24]. 2.5 Citrus Season Ending, Benefiting Apple Demand - In March, fruit prices remained strong. As the citrus supply season ended, its substitution effect on apples weakened, which was beneficial for the recovery of apple consumption demand [30]. 2.6 Seasonal Analysis of Apple Consumption - Months with a high probability of price increases are September, November, and December, mainly due to factors such as low inventory, reduced supply of seasonal fruits, and festival effects. Months with a high probability of price decreases are April, August, and October, mainly due to the impact of seasonal fruits, new - season apple listings, and quality decline of stored apples [34][35]. 2.7 Price Differentiation of Apples by Quality - As of March 27, 2026, in Shandong Yantai Qixia, prices of high - quality apples remained high, while low - quality apples had lower prices. The price difference between large and small apples was likely to widen, and the far - month futures contracts were expected to remain strong [38]. 3. Future Outlook - In the short term, observe the stocking for the Tomb - sweeping Festival and consumption during the festival. The price difference between high - quality and low - quality apples is likely to continue to widen, and the AP2605 contract may fluctuate widely. In the mid - to long - term, the market will be affected by orchard destocking and new - season apple growth, and factors such as weather and planting area changes during the growth period of the 2026/27 new - season apples need to be focused on [40].