纸浆季报：低位震荡，等待需求企稳

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the pulp futures market is in a low - level oscillation. The cost side has certain support due to the continuous increase in foreign pulp prices, but the traditional papermaking off - season restricts the upward rebound of the market. The current supply - demand sides are in a continuous game, and it is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then consider a low - buying strategy [7][32] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In March 2026, the main pulp futures contract SP2605 first declined and then rose. The cost side of pulp prices has support due to the continuous increase in foreign offers, but the traditional papermaking off - season leads to downstream inventory digestion and price pressure, resulting in a low - level oscillation [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Expected Tightening of Coniferous Pulp Imports - China has a high degree of external dependence on pulp, especially for bleached softwood pulp. In January - February 2026, China imported 6.044 million tons of pulp, with an import amount of $3.48 billion and an average unit price of $575.78/ton. The cumulative import volume and amount decreased by 5.4% and 12.8% respectively compared with the same period last year. Affected by geopolitical factors, the import volume from North America has declined, and imports from Brazil, Chile, Finland, and Uruguay have increased. Large pulp mills may permanently shut down or reduce production, and the supply of coniferous pulp in 2026 is expected to be significantly tightened [13][14] 3.2.2 Decline in European Port Inventories and Gradual Recovery of Overseas Demand - In February 2026, European chemical pulp consumption was 820,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.42%, and the inventory was 703,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.75%. The inventory days were 26 days, one day less than the same period last year. In January 2026, the total European port inventory decreased by 14.72% month - on - month and 11.34% compared with January 2025. European wood pulp demand may be slowly recovering, and the pulp foreign offers are firm [17] 3.2.3 Continuous Increase in Foreign Offers - The foreign offer of imported hardwood pulp has been rebounding since August 2025 and continued to rise in April 2026. For example, Suzano announced a price increase of $20/ton for eucalyptus hardwood pulp in the Asian market and $50/ton in the European and American markets in April 2026. The foreign offers of hardwood pulp announced in April continued to rise, increasing the subsequent import cost and providing certain support to the pulp price cost side [20][21] 3.2.4 Recovery of Downstream Paper Mill Operating Rates and Increased Import Cost Pressure - The foreign offers of coniferous and hardwood pulp are running strongly, increasing the production cost of downstream paper enterprises. However, the price increase of downstream base paper is weak, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing the procurement willingness for high - priced raw materials. As of March 26, the gross profit margin of Silver Star pulp was - 7.57%, up 0.97 percentage points from last week but down 6.29 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load rates of downstream paper types vary. Overall, downstream paper mills focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with general procurement enthusiasm, and high - price transactions are difficult to increase, dragging down the actual price increase of hardwood pulp [24][25] 3.2.5 Increase in Domestic Main Port Inventories and Still at a High Level - As of March 26, 2026, the total pulp inventory in Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.3512 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.42%, turning from a decline to an increase. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, with great pressure to reduce inventory, waiting for demand recovery [28] 3.3 Market Outlook - In terms of imports, in January - February 2026, China's pulp import volume and amount decreased by 5.4% and 12.8% respectively compared with the same period last year. International pulp mills have production reduction plans, and the growth rate of pulp import volume may slow down. The domestic pulp port inventory increased in March 2026, is still at a high level, and has great pressure to reduce inventory. Foreign pulp mills are releasing maintenance news, and downstream paper mills are consuming raw material inventories. The traditional papermaking off - season in April may restrict the upward rebound of the market. The continuous increase in foreign offers provides support to the cost side. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then consider a low - buying strategy [30][32]