等待政策确认，郑糖维持偏多格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market has geopolitical risk premiums, with the US - Iran conflict showing no clear signs of easing, making oil prices likely to rise and difficult to fall. The ethanol substitution logic continues to be effective, and the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season is expected to decrease, increasing the expectation of tightened global sugar supply. However, there are also difficulties in the trend - like rise of international sugar prices. If the US - Iran conflict eases, oil prices may回调, weakening the ethanol substitution logic and reducing the upward momentum of sugar prices. There is still inventory pressure globally, and the slowdown in global food consumption growth restricts the upward space of sugar prices. The weak Brazilian real against the US dollar increases the supply pressure in the international sugar market [2][26]. - The domestic sugar market is mainly affected by three factors: import cost support, policy factors, and domestic supply - demand fundamentals. Import cost support and policy expectations limit the decline of Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the weak domestic demand restricts the upward space, making it difficult for the sugar market to have a trend - like sharp rise [3][27]. - The operation suggestion is to adopt a bullish mindset for Zhengzhou sugar [4][28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Domestic Market: In the first quarter, Zhengzhou sugar showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern with a "strong expectation, weak reality" situation. The price range of the main contract was 5200 - 5542 yuan/ton, and the price center shifted upward compared with the fourth quarter of last year. The rise was driven by the increase in international sugar prices and import policy expectations, but the abundant domestic supply and weak consumption in the off - season restricted the increase [6]. - International Market: In the first quarter, international sugar prices showed a volatile rebound with a gradually rising center. The ICE raw sugar main contract rose from around 13.34 cents/pound at the beginning of the year to 15.63 cents/pound at the end of March. The main support was the significant reduction in the global sugar surplus. The expected decrease in sugar production in Brazil and India also contributed to the price increase, but the strong US dollar and potential global supply pressure restricted the upward movement [7]. 3.2 International Market Analysis - Brazil: The 2025/26 crushing season in Brazil has basically ended, with a cumulative sugar production of 4024000 tons in the central - southern region, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The sugar - making ratio is expected to decrease from 50.74% to 48% in the new 2026/27 crushing season. The new season may start in March, but rainfall may disrupt the schedule. Oil prices affect sugar prices through bio - energy substitution and logistics - cost transmission paths [9][10][11]. - India: In the 2025/26 crushing season, India's sugar production is estimated to be around 2850000 tons, and the expected export volume is about 800000 tons. The actual export volume may be adjusted according to international sugar prices [13]. - Thailand: In the 2025/26 crushing season, Thailand's sugar production is expected to reach 1100000 tons if the sugar mills' closing time is postponed to after the first week of April [15]. 3.3 Domestic Market Analysis - Sales Situation: In the first quarter of 2026, the domestic spot sugar market had weak transactions and a lagging production - sales process. There was a significant regional difference, with sales in Guangxi lagging behind and those in Yunnan being relatively better. As of the end of February, the sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 38.49%, while that in Yunnan was 46.71% [17]. - Import Situation: From January to February 2026, China's sugar imports increased significantly year - on - year, with a cumulative import of 520000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 563.1%. The import volume is expected to decline steadily in the second quarter, and the annual import volume is expected to be lower than that of the previous crushing season. The market expects the import quota to be tightened, but this needs to be confirmed in May [21]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of March 24, 2026, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's sugar futures warehouse receipts were at a low level, which supported the sugar price and limited the downward space. The low warehouse receipts were the result of multiple factors, and the subsequent warehouse receipt registration volume is expected to gradually increase [23][24].