碧桂园服务：营收规模创新高，推动运营更稳健-20260329

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company's revenue is boosted by property management and community value-added services, with a decrease in expense ratio and an increase in property management gross margin. The area under management and community value-added services continue to grow, while smart technology enhances operational efficiency [2][27] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 48,354 million RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. The net profit is expected to be 599 million RMB, a decrease of 68.1% compared to the previous year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.18 RMB [4][19] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to be 17.5% for 2025, down 1.6 percentage points from 2024. The net profit margin is expected to be 1.2%, a decline of 2.9 percentage points from the previous year [16][19] Revenue Breakdown - In 2025, property management services generated revenue of 27,930 million RMB, up 7.3% year-on-year, accounting for 57.8% of total revenue. Community value-added services brought in 4,416 million RMB, a 5.0% increase. Non-owner value-added services saw a decline of 10.6%, generating 630 million RMB [14][19] - The company’s management area reached 1,070.4 million square meters in 2025, reflecting a growth of 3.2% year-on-year [21][25] Expense and Profitability Analysis - The expense ratio decreased to 9.9% of revenue in 2025, down 1 percentage point from 2024. The company’s cash reserves decreased by 13.7% to 15,283 million RMB [15][20] - The gross margin for property management services increased slightly to 20.6%, while community value-added services saw a significant drop in gross margin to 28.9% [16][19] Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts an EPS of 0.45 RMB for 2026, down from a previous estimate of 0.57 RMB. A dynamic PE valuation of 14 times is applied, suggesting a fair value of 7.14 HKD per share, a decrease from the previous estimate of 8.67 HKD [27]