PVC产业链周报-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the total PVC production increased slightly. The ethylene - based PVC production reduction was less than expected due to the successive start - up of ethylene - based PVC plants such as Yantai Wanhua and Guangxi Huayi. The export order volume slightly recovered. It is necessary to pay attention to the increase in PVC costs globally, which may lead to better - than - expected exports. The current market generally believes that PVC has price competitiveness even without export tax rebates. The spot price of caustic soda fluctuates strongly, the price of calcium carbide strengthens this week, and the price of semi - coke also rises slightly. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has slightly improved, but the production profit of some PVC production methods has declined. Upstream PVC prices fluctuate, caustic soda prices strengthen, and the comprehensive profit slightly strengthens. Traders mainly focus on spot - futures arbitrage, but the shipment situation has slightly deteriorated. Downstream operating rates are still weak, but there is a slight situation of inventory replenishment [6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 PVC Supply and Demand - Production: This week's total production was 49.48 tons, a slight increase of 0.49 tons compared with last week. The ethylene - based production was 12.83 tons, an increase of 0.26 tons, and the calcium - carbide - based production was 36.65 tons, an increase of 0.23 tons. Next week, the total production is expected to be 46.41 tons, and the ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based production is expected to be 11.43 tons and 34.98 tons respectively [6]. - Import and Export: The weekly average import volume remained stable at 0.50 tons, and the weekly average export volume was 6.75 tons. The export order volume slightly recovered. In January, the export volume was 28.55 tons, and in February, it was 44.75 tons [6]. - Apparent Demand: This week's apparent demand was 46.94 tons, slightly lower than expected. Next week's apparent demand is expected to be 42.68 tons [6]. - Inventory: This week, the total inventory decreased by 3.72 tons, and it is expected to continue to decline next week. The inventory of upstream calcium - carbide - based and ethylene - based plants also decreased [6]. 3.2 Related Product Prices - The price of 32% caustic soda increased from 650 yuan/ton last week to 690 yuan/ton this week. The price of Shandong liquid chlorine increased from 100 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton. The price of Shandong raw salt decreased slightly from 225 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton. The price of Shaanxi semi - coke increased from 735 yuan/ton to 820 yuan/ton. The price of Shandong calcium carbide increased from 2980 yuan/ton to 3130 yuan/ton, and the price of Shaanxi calcium carbide increased from 2625 yuan/ton to 2700 yuan/ton. The price of ethylene in East China decreased slightly from 9800 yuan/ton to 9700 yuan/ton, while the price of imported ethylene increased from 1300 yuan/ton to 1400 yuan/ton. The price of VCM increased from 6000 yuan/ton to 6400 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Production and Valuation Profits - Production Profit: The calcium - carbide production profit in Shaanxi increased from - 327 yuan/ton to - 320 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia, it increased from 200 yuan/ton to 282 yuan/ton. The northwest integrated PVC profit decreased from 285 yuan/ton to 113 yuan/ton. The northwest calcium - carbide - purchased method profit decreased from 364 yuan/ton to 13 yuan/ton, the Shandong calcium - carbide - purchased method profit decreased from - 45 yuan/ton to - 327 yuan/ton, the imported ethylene - based method profit decreased from - 126 yuan/ton to - 399 yuan/ton, and the East China VCM - purchased method profit decreased from 567 yuan/ton to - 487 yuan/ton. The Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit increased from 33 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [8]. - Import and Export Profit: The FOB Tianjin relative export profit increased from 925 yuan/ton to 1178 yuan/ton. The theoretical export profit to India decreased from 1615 yuan/ton to 1543 yuan/ton, and the theoretical export profit to Southeast Asia increased from 2194 yuan/ton to 2530 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC weakened from - 195 yuan/ton to - 230 yuan/ton, and that of South China calcium - carbide - based PVC weakened from - 55 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread decreased from 75 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased from - 54 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased from - 21 yuan/ton to - 116 yuan/ton [8]. 3.4 Upstream, Mid - stream, and Downstream Views and Strategies - Upstream: The upstream PVC price fluctuates, the caustic soda price strengthens, and the comprehensive profit slightly strengthens. Pay attention to the load reduction of upstream cracking units and the actual production reduction of ethylene - based units [9]. - Mid - stream: Traders mainly focus on spot - futures arbitrage, but the shipment situation has slightly deteriorated. The cancellation of warehouse receipts next week may put some pressure on the spot market [9]. - Downstream: The downstream operating rate is still weak, but there is a slight situation of inventory replenishment [9]. - Strategies: Pay attention to spot - futures arbitrage opportunities, beware of callback risks in unilateral trading, temporarily exit the 5 - 9 positive spread in inter - month trading, and there is no option strategy for now [9].