东方证券煤炭行业周报：钢厂、焦化厂进一步补库，焦煤现货价格如期上涨-20260329

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the coal industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector is expected to show upward elasticity due to escalating conflicts between the US and Iran, with thermal coal being a vital resource for livelihoods. Price increases may face policy constraints, but a shift in policy favoring thermal coal could tighten coking coal supply, leading to a rapid shift in supply-demand dynamics [3][62] - Short-term fundamentals are driving a rebound in coking coal prices, which have more room to rise compared to thermal coal prices. Recommended stocks include Pingmei Shenma Energy (601666, Buy), Huaibei Mining (600985, Buy), Shanxi Coking Coal (000983, Buy), and Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699, Buy) [3][62] Industry Overview - Coking coal prices are expected to rise as downstream steel and coking plants continue to replenish inventories. As of March 27, independent coking plants held 8.86 million tons of coking coal, a 4.5% increase week-on-week, while sample steel mills held 7.82 million tons, up 1.1% [9][29] - The average daily iron output from 247 steel mills was 2.31 million tons, reflecting a 1.3% increase week-on-week, indicating a sustained upward trend in demand [9][29] - The price of low-sulfur coking coal reached 1,532 RMB per ton, up 88 RMB per ton week-on-week, while Australian hard coking coal was priced at 256 USD per ton, an increase of 11 USD per ton [9][29] - The price ratio between coking coal and thermal coal remains at historically low levels, indicating that recent increases in coking coal prices are largely driven by thermal coal price movements [9][20] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The operating rates of thermal and coking coal mines are in line with seasonal characteristics, with iron output continuing to rise and cement utilization rates also increasing seasonally [23][22] - Port inventory pressures are evident, with steel and coking plants continuing to replenish stocks [29][29] - The number of anchored vessels in ports has begun to rise, indicating a recovery in shipping demand [48][50]