中海物业：主业增长稳健，能力构建扎实-20260329

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5]. Core Insights - The company's main business is steadily growing, with increasing independence and a rising proportion of non-residential business, while maintaining a positive dividend policy. Given the company's growth potential and state-owned background, a moderate premium is applied to its valuation [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 14,959.87 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. The gross profit is expected to be 2,247 million RMB, with a gross margin of 15.0%, down 1.6 percentage points from 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,366.78 million RMB, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year [4][14]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend of 19 cents per share for 2025, with a proposed final dividend of 10 cents per share and an interim dividend of 9 cents per share [26]. Business Analysis - The company has seen an 8.0% increase in managed area, reaching approximately 478 million square meters by the end of 2025. Of the new orders, 85.1% come from independent third parties, with residential and non-residential projects accounting for 68.4% and 31.6% of the new managed area, respectively [16][18]. - Revenue from property management services is expected to be 11,729 million RMB, a 9.1% increase year-on-year, constituting 78.4% of total revenue. However, revenue from value-added services is projected to decline by 1.7% to 3,158 million RMB, making up 21.1% of total revenue [18][24]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are projected to be 0.44, 0.47, and 0.52 RMB, respectively. A 12x PE valuation is assigned for 2026, leading to a target price of 5.93 HKD [28][30].