——贵金属双周报（2026/03/16-2026/03/29）：中东局势扰动叠加美联储鹰派发声,贵金属开启高波动行情-20260329

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][7] Core Insights - The precious metals sector has experienced significant price corrections, with gold and silver prices dropping sharply due to various factors including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve [4][6][7] - The market dynamics have shifted from a focus on potential interest rate cuts to a more complex interplay of high interest rates, geopolitical risks, and trade policy uncertainties, which supports gold as a hedge against inflation and economic downturns [7] Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends - In the past two weeks, London spot gold fell by 10.71% to $4504.15 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold price dropped by 11.86% to ¥998.66 per gram. Silver prices also saw declines, with London spot silver down 19.00% to $67.80 per ounce [6][11][15] 2. U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, indicating uncertainty regarding the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the U.S. economy. Market expectations have shifted towards potential interest rate hikes rather than cuts [6][7] 3. Positioning and Trading Volume - The trading volume for Shanghai gold decreased by 12.56% to 273,700 contracts, while silver trading volume fell by 6.25% to 452,700 contracts [11][15] 4. Domestic and International Price Differences and Gold Benchmark Ratios - The domestic gold price difference was -6.39 yuan per gram, a decrease of 24.96 yuan from two weeks prior. The silver price difference was 1979.60 yuan per kilogram, down 1051.30 yuan [61] 5. Futures Basis Situation - As of the latest report, the international gold basis was -$17.15 per ounce, a decrease of $38.65 from two weeks ago, while the domestic gold basis was -6.21 yuan per gram, down 4.46 yuan [70][71]