流动性与机构行为周度跟踪260329：Q1季末机构负债充裕资金维持宽松-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The funds remained loose this week despite some disturbances such as government bond supply and OMO net - withdrawals in the first half of the week. The MLF over - renewal and OMO net - injection on Wednesday limited the impact of the quarter - end factor. Short - term interest rates remained low, and the yields of medium - and short - term policy financial bonds continued to decline [3][15]. - The cross - quarter progress of funds slowed down further this week, with the cross - quarter progress of the whole market at 35.2%, 9.3 percentage points lower than the average from 2020 - 2025. However, the disturbance to funds at the quarter - end was limited, and the actual financing cost of non - banks was at a relatively low level compared with previous quarter - ends [4][29]. - Although the scale of money market funds rebounded rapidly in February, their demand for certificates of deposit was weaker than the seasonality, and the scale of reverse repurchase lending was also relatively limited. The probability of a significant rebound in short - term interest rates after the quarter - end was relatively low [39]. - The net payment of government bonds will decrease next week. With the central bank's support, institutions are likely to achieve a smooth cross - quarter. The exogenous disturbances to funds in early April after the quarter - end are also relatively limited, and the loose pattern is expected to continue in the short term [43][67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Money Market 3.1.1 This Week's Fund Review - The central bank's OMO had a net injection of 231.9 billion yuan this week. On Wednesday, the central bank conducted a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with an over - renewal of 50 billion yuan compared with the maturity on that day. Despite the net withdrawal in the first half of the week and the large supply pressure of government bonds on Monday, the funds remained loose. DR001 remained at 1.32% for 11 consecutive trading days [3][15]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase fluctuated and declined, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 0.44 trillion yuan to 7.94 trillion yuan compared with last week. The overall scale of pledged repurchase first decreased and then increased, rising above 12 trillion yuan again on Friday. The net lending of large - scale banks first decreased and then increased, and was lower than last week as a whole; the net lending of small - scale banks continued to rise after Tuesday; the overall net lending of banks also first decreased and then increased, and was higher than last week [4][24]. - The non - bank rigid lending increased slightly continuously, mainly due to the large increase in the lending of money market funds. The non - bank rigid borrowing scale began to increase continuously on Tuesday, mainly due to the large increase in other products and insurance. The seasonally adjusted fund gap index fluctuated at a low level in the first half of the week and continued to rise after Wednesday, rising to - 314.6 billion yuan on Friday, higher than - 866.3 billion yuan last Friday; while the pre - seasonally adjusted index dropped to - 954.7 billion yuan, mainly affected by the large increase in the net lending of small - scale banks excluded from the seasonal adjustment [4][24]. - The cross - quarter progress of funds slowed down further. As of Friday, the cross - quarter progress of inter - bank funds was 35.4%, at the lowest level in the same period of previous years, and the gap with previous years continued to widen; the cross - quarter progress of the exchange slowed down again after accelerating on Tuesday, and the cross - quarter progress on Friday was 34.6%, also dropping to the lowest level in the same period of previous years. The cross - month progress of the whole market was 35.2%, 9.3 percentage points lower than the average from 2020 - 2025 [29]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Fund Outlook - The net payment of government bonds this week was 606.4 billion yuan. There is no treasury bond issuance plan next week. The issuance scale of local bonds in 5 regions such as Henan, Chongqing, and Sichuan is 118.4 billion yuan, including 2.1 billion yuan of new general bonds, 29.7 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 86.6 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, among which the issuance of replacement bonds is 11.7 billion yuan. Considering the time lag between issuance and payment, the payment scale of government bonds next week will drop to 146.4 billion yuan, the maturity scale will drop to 131.4 billion yuan, and the net payment scale will drop to 15 billion yuan [40][43]. - The actual issuance scale of treasury bonds in March was 1.38 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 300 billion yuan, in line with expectations. The issuance scale of local bonds in March was 1.08 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 670 billion yuan, lower than the expected 770 billion yuan. The overall actual issuance scale of government bonds in March was 2.47 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 960 billion yuan, lower than the expected 1.07 trillion yuan. The cumulative net financing of government bonds in the first quarter was 3.56 trillion yuan, lower than 4.1 trillion yuan in the same period of 2025 [56]. - Seven regions newly announced the Q2 local bond issuance plan this week. Currently, 22 regions have announced the Q2 plan, with a total scale of 1.9904 trillion yuan, still lower than the actual issuance of 2.0865 trillion yuan in Q1. It is estimated that the issuance scale of local bonds in April may be 1.03 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 570 billion yuan, revised down by 130 billion yuan compared with last week's forecast. It is estimated that the issuance scale of local bonds in May and June will be 1.02 trillion yuan respectively, with net financings of 750 billion yuan and 490 billion yuan respectively. It is estimated that the issuance scale of government bonds in April, May, and June 2026 will be 2.36 trillion yuan, 2.39 trillion yuan, and 2.62 trillion yuan respectively, with net financings of 1.07 trillion yuan, 1.42 trillion yuan, and 1.06 trillion yuan respectively. The cumulative net financing scale of government bonds in the second quarter is expected to be about 3.55 trillion yuan, still lower than 3.7 trillion yuan in the same period of 2025 [60][62]. - The maturity scale of 7 - day reverse repurchases next week will rise to 474.2 billion yuan, and the net payment of government bonds will drop from 606.4 billion yuan this week to 15 billion yuan, with net repayments in the first half of the week. The new stock of Beijie Stock Exchange, Saiying Electronics, will be issued online on March 30, with a fundraising scale of about 270 million yuan, which may have a relatively lower impact on the exchange fund prices in the first half of the week. Overall, the maturity volume of reverse repurchases next week is lower than that in previous cross - quarter periods. With the central bank's support, institutions are likely to achieve a smooth cross - quarter. The exogenous disturbances to funds in early April after the quarter - end are also relatively limited, and the loose pattern is expected to continue in the short term [67]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate decreased by 1.45 BP to 1.5405% compared with March 20. The 1 - year AAA - grade inter - bank certificate of deposit secondary rate increased by 1 BP to 1.525% compared with March 20 [68]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased while the maturity scale decreased this week, and the certificates of deposit turned to net financing of 7.27 billion yuan, an increase of 48.73 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were - 55.4 billion yuan, 131.7 billion yuan, 27.6 billion yuan, and - 11 billion yuan respectively. The 9 - month - term certificates of deposit had the largest issuance volume this week, accounting for 32%, and the issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased by 5 percentage points to 30% compared with last week. The maturity scale of certificates of deposit next week is about 15.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 54.42 billion yuan compared with this week [74]. - The issuance success rates of joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks for certificates of deposit decreased month - on - month, while that of state - owned banks increased. Except for the relatively low issuance success rate of rural commercial banks, the others were near the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed [75]. - The relative supply - demand strength index of certificates of deposit first decreased and then increased this week, rising by 0.2 percentage points to 29.3% for the whole week. The willingness of money market funds to increase holdings in the primary market increased slightly, the willingness of wealth management products and funds to increase holdings was stable, and the willingness of other products to increase holdings in the secondary market decreased. In terms of different terms, the supply - demand indexes of 1 - month and 1 - year certificates of deposit increased, while those of 3 - month, 6 - month, and 9 - month certificates of deposit decreased, with relatively large declines in 6 - month and 9 - month certificates of deposit [85]. 3.3 Bill Market The bill interest rate declined overall this week. As of March 27, the 3 - month and 6 - month bill interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks decreased by 13 BP and 11 BP respectively compared with March 20, to 1.30% and 1.06% [92]. 3.4 Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - Interest - rate bonds fluctuated downward this week, and the credit spreads of medium - and long - term bonds compressed. Large - scale banks tended to reduce their bond holdings overall, and the scale of their increased holdings of treasury bonds also decreased. They tended to reduce their holdings of treasury bonds within 1 year and 5 - year treasury bonds, the willingness to increase holdings of 7 - year treasury bonds decreased, but they turned to be inclined to increase holdings of treasury bonds over 10 years. At the same time, they tended to reduce their holdings of policy financial bonds within 1 year, the willingness to reduce holdings of 1 - 3 - year policy financial bonds increased, but the willingness to reduce holdings of local bonds decreased [95]. - Trading - type institutions tended to increase their bond holdings overall. Among them, the willingness of securities companies to reduce holdings decreased, the willingness of fund companies to increase holdings increased, but the willingness of other institutions and products to increase holdings decreased [95]. - Allocation - type institutions' willingness to increase bond holdings increased overall. Among them, the willingness of small - and medium - sized banks to reduce holdings decreased, the willingness of wealth management products to increase holdings increased, but the willingness of insurance companies to increase holdings decreased [95].