流动性与同业存单跟踪：3月份MLF增量续作的两个积极意义

Report Industry Investment Rating - Interest - rate bonds: The rating is based on the net price increase or decrease of interest - rate bonds within 3 months after the report date. There are three ratings including "Overweight" (interest rate risk decreases and net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (interest rate risk is stable and net price has slight fluctuations), and "Underweight" (interest rate risk increases and net price has room to fall) [69][73] - Credit bonds: The rating is based on the net price increase or decrease of credit bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings are "Overweight" (credit risk decreases and net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (credit risk is stable and net price has slight fluctuations), and "Underweight" (credit risk increases and net price has room to fall) [69] - Convertible bonds: The rating is based on the increase or decrease of the convertible bond price relative to the CSI Convertible Bond Index within 3 months after the report date. Ratings are "Overweight" (convertible bond performance is stronger than the CSI Convertible Bond Index), "Neutral" (convertible bond performance is the same as the CSI Convertible Bond Index), and "Underweight" (convertible bond performance is weaker than the CSI Convertible Bond Index) [70] Core Viewpoints - The incremental renewal of MLF in March released two positive meanings. First, the reduction in 3M - and 6M - term repurchase agreements was likely due to commercial bank demand. Second, after considering the negative externalities of high oil prices, the central bank still chose a relatively loose monetary policy [1][3][4] - The report is still optimistic about the continued looseness of inter - bank liquidity and the future trends of cash assets such as repurchase agreements, inter - bank certificates of deposit, short - term interest rates, short - term credit, and ABS [5] 3. March MLF Incremental Renewal's Two Positive Meanings - The central bank has constructed short - term, medium - term, and long - term quantitative monetary policy toolkits. Long - term tools include reserve requirement ratio cuts and treasury bond trading, medium - term tools include MLF, repurchase agreements, and various structural tools, and short - term tools include 7 - day open - market repurchase agreements and overnight repurchase agreements [2][12] - The reduction in 3M - and 6M - term repurchase agreements in March was likely due to commercial bank demand. In March, the 3M - term repurchase agreement decreased by 200 billion yuan, the 6M - term by 100 billion yuan, and in February, the central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds decreased by 50 billion yuan. However, the 5 - billion - yuan net MLF injection in March showed that the central bank's supportive attitude remained unchanged, as commercial banks had a higher acceptance of 1 - year MLF funds and less demand for 3M - and 6M - term repurchase agreements [3][12] - After considering the negative externalities of high oil prices, the central bank still chose a relatively loose monetary policy. High oil prices boosted domestic PPI and CPI, but the domestic price increase might be due to imported inflation. The incremental renewal of MLF released this policy signal. Also, on March 23, the NDRC adjusted domestic refined oil prices, indicating that macro - policies considered the negative externalities of high oil prices [4][13] 2. Narrow - sense Liquidity 2.1 Central Bank Operations - Short - term liquidity: Near the end of the quarter, the central bank increased its repurchase agreement injections. From March 23 to 27, the net injection of repurchase agreements was 231.9 billion yuan [17] - Medium - and long - term liquidity: The central bank's net MLF injection was 5 billion yuan [17] 2.2 Institutional Funding Supply and Demand - Funding supply (lenders): Near the end of the quarter, the net lending of large - scale banks decreased significantly [21] - Funding demand (borrowers): The absolute financing balance was high, while the relative leverage ratio was low [28] 2.3 Repurchase Market Transaction - Funding volume and price: The volume was abundant and the price was stable [42] - Funding sentiment index: The market was relatively relaxed [45] 2.4 Interest Rate Swaps - The cost of interest rate swaps fluctuated slightly, and the spread between CDs and IRS remained low [50] 3. Government Bonds 3.1 Next Week's Net Government Bond Payment: A Significant Decrease - In the past week, the total net government bond payment was 60.64 billion yuan, and in the next week, it is expected to be 1.5 billion yuan [51] 3.2 Government Bond Maturity Structure - As of March 27, the proportion of ultra - long - term bonds (over 10 years) in government bond issuance has changed over time. The issuance of treasury bonds and local government bonds also has different maturity structures [53][56][57] 4. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit 4.1 Absolute Yield - The SHIBOR yield curve and the AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield curve changed slightly in the past week [61] 4.2 Issuance and Outstanding Balance - As of March 27, the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 772 billion yuan, with different proportions for different maturities. The total outstanding balance was 1,818.856 billion yuan, also with different maturity distributions [64][65] 4.3 Relative Valuation - The spreads of inter - bank certificates of deposit, such as the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield and R007, DR007, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield, changed slightly, and their quantiles since 2020 are different [67]