煤炭开采行业跟踪周报：贸易商积极挺价，港口煤价小幅上涨-20260329

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The current fundamentals of the port thermal coal market remain weak, with a relaxed supply and weak downstream demand. However, a decrease in inventory and limited spot availability have led traders to support prices, resulting in a slight increase in port coal prices. In the long term, as the heating season ends and temperatures rise, electricity demand is expected to weaken, and hydropower is anticipated to recover further, leading to a forecast of fluctuating coal prices [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - During the week from March 23 to March 28, the port thermal coal spot price increased by 26 CNY/ton, closing at 761 CNY/ton. The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.1043 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons or 4.47% from the previous week. The average daily outflow decreased to 1.7440 million tons, a reduction of 185,800 tons or 9.63% [1][11][27] 2. Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at production sites increased, with the price for 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong rising by 46 CNY/ton to 677 CNY/ton, and the price for 4000 kcal thermal coal in Inner Mongolia increasing by 130 CNY/ton to 460 CNY/ton. The port price for 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao also rose by 26 CNY/ton to 761 CNY/ton [16][19] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The inventory at the four Bohai Rim ports decreased by 330,000 tons to 28.6895 million tons, a decline of 1.06%. The number of anchored vessels in the same area increased by 23% to an average of 103.75 vessels [32][34] 4. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending thermal coal elastic stocks such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy, which are considered undervalued [3][37]