2026.03.23-2026.03.27日策略周报：中东冲突依然持续，A股指数宽幅震荡下行-20260329

Core Insights - The A-share index experienced significant fluctuations and a downward trend due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, which has led to rising international oil prices and is expected to significantly increase global inflation rates, negatively impacting GDP growth in 2026 [2][3][14]. Industry Performance - Among the 31 first-level industries, the top gainers were non-ferrous metals and public utilities, with increases of 2.78% and 2.50% respectively, while the largest declines were seen in non-bank financials and computers, which fell by 3.98% and 3.44% respectively [4][19]. - In the 124 second-level industries, the highest weekly gains were in energy metals and steel raw materials, with increases of 13.38% and 5.35%. Year-to-date, the leading sectors were oil service engineering and glass fiber, with cumulative gains of 40.31% and 23.84% respectively. Conversely, the largest weekly declines were in marine equipment II and insurance II, which dropped by 5.57% and 5.52% [4][22]. - Among the 259 third-level industries, the top weekly performers were communication cables and battery chemicals, with increases of 8.77% and 7.74%. Year-to-date, communication cables and oil and refining engineering led with gains of 56.34% and 55.02%. The largest weekly declines were in LED and home appliances, which fell by 9.27% and 7.96% [5][24]. Macro Data - Industrial profits for the first two months of 2026 showed a significant year-on-year increase of 15.20%, a stark contrast to the near-zero growth of -0.30% in the same period of 2025. This growth is attributed to a low base effect and the historical volatility of profit data in January and February, necessitating further months of data to confirm sustainability [6][25]. Investment Recommendations - In the long term, 2026 is viewed as the starting year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with continued proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies expected to support stable domestic economic performance and a "slow bull" market for A-shares [7][26]. - In the short term, following the conclusion of the Two Sessions, the market is expected to return to normal operations. The ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts are identified as a primary short-term factor affecting the A-share market. A defensive strategy is recommended, focusing on dividend sectors related to long-term defensive capital inflows and segments benefiting from the sustained conflict [8][26].