周观：债市“钝化”，新增信息难掀波澜（2026年第12期）

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market showed limited reactions to overseas conflicts and China's economic "good start" at the beginning of the year. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250022 decreased by 1.85bp from 1.8365% last Friday to 1.818% this Friday. In the short - term, the bond market lacks a smooth long - term logic. In the medium - to - long - term, the recovery slope of PPI year - on - year in the second half of the year becomes a focus, and if it is stronger than expected, there is a possibility of interest rate increase [1][10]. - The future of the US bond yield is closely related to the development of the US - Israel - Iran conflict. There are two possible extreme paths: one is the lifting of Iranian sanctions, leading to lower oil prices, increased frictional unemployment, and a possible rebound of growth technology stocks; the other is Iran's substantial control of the strait, pushing up oil prices, forcing global central banks to return to a hawkish stance, and there is a risk of the AI bubble bursting in advance. It is recommended to construct a hedging portfolio, with gold and US bonds having strong repair space, and HALO targets having a higher priority than technology growth targets [19]. - The US import price index has been rising recently, and the EIA crude oil inventory shows a significant differentiation. These factors may jointly affect the Fed's policy judgment. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged in March 2026, and the expected future interest rate cut is limited. The Fed is likely to maintain the interest rate in the range of 350 - 375bp in the first half of 2026, and the interest rate cut rhythm will be postponed [20][23]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Viewpoints - Analysis of the bond market's limited reaction: The bond market's reaction to overseas conflicts and economic "good start" is limited. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250022 fluctuated and decreased this week. The uncertainty of the US - Iran conflict and the possible seasonal factors of the economic "good start" are the main reasons. The bond market shows a "desensitization" feature to fundamental data [10][15]. - Analysis of the future trend of US bond yields: The future of the US bond yield is mainly affected by the US - Israel - Iran conflict. There are two possible extreme paths, and corresponding asset allocation suggestions are provided [19]. - Analysis of US economic data and Fed policy: The US import price index is rising, the EIA crude oil inventory is differentiated, the consumer confidence index is declining, and the labor market shows short - term resilience. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged in March 2026, and the future interest rate cut is limited [20][23]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summary 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - The net investment in the open market from March 23 to March 27 was 2819 billion yuan. The money market interest rate showed certain changes, and the issuance of interest - bearing bonds also changed compared with the previous week [34]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices generally increased, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices decreased. The prices of coal, vegetables, and other commodities also showed different trends. The prices of US stocks, bonds, and other assets fluctuated, and the exchange rates of major currencies also changed [58]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - A total of 75 local government bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with an issuance amount of 308.559 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 177.962 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 130.597 billion yuan. The main investment directions are shantytown renovation, highways, and comprehensive projects. Three provinces and cities issued local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts, with a total issuance amount of 58.956 billion yuan [86][93]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The stock of local government bonds this week was 57.09 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 500.93 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.88%. The top three provinces with active trading are Guangdong, Sichuan, and Zhejiang, and the top three active trading terms are 10Y, 30Y, and 20Y. The maturity yields of local government bonds showed a differentiated trend [101][103]. 3.3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for This Month - The issuance plans of local government bonds in some provinces and cities from March 30 to April 3 are provided [109]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - A total of 495 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 441.944 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 298.557 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 143.386 billion yuan, an increase of 52.009 billion yuan compared with last week. Among them, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was 4.466 billion yuan, and the net financing amount of industrial bonds was 138.921 billion yuan [107][111]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds decreased, while the issuance interest rate of corporate bonds was not provided [121]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 629.054 billion yuan, and the trading volume of each bond type and rating showed different characteristics [122]. 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds generally decreased, the yields of short - term financing notes and medium - term notes generally decreased, the yields of corporate bonds showed a differentiated trend, and the yields of urban investment bonds generally decreased [123][126]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing notes and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the credit spreads of corporate bonds generally decreased, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally decreased [127][130]. 3.4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing notes, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds all showed a differentiated trend [133][140]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity - The top five most actively traded bonds of each bond type this week are provided, and the bond trading volume of the industrial industry is the largest [146][147]. 3.4.8 Changes in Subject Ratings - The subject ratings or outlooks of two companies were raised [149].