国泰君安期货·能源化工：天然橡胶周度报告-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, natural rubber is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with a preference for reverse arbitrage strategies. The price of natural rubber is supported by the substitution logic and speculative buying in the market due to the extreme historical price difference between butadiene rubber and natural rubber. However, the demand side faces the expectation of a possible weakening of tire export orders in the second quarter and a potential reduction in future tire production. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips and adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy, and maintain the view that the price difference between dark and light rubber will shrink seasonally. Investors should closely monitor the actual trading situation of high - priced butadiene rubber and the cost - side butadiene [100]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In February 2026, global light - vehicle sales decreased by 8.5% year - on - year to 6.04 million units. The sharp contraction in the Chinese market was the key factor for the decline in global sales, while the Western European market showed a positive rebound. The recent Middle East situation poses challenges to global light - vehicle sales [5]. - In the first two months of 2026, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 8.4% year - on - year, with a 10% year - on - year increase in exports to China [5]. - In the first two months of 2026, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 7.4% year - on - year, with a 6% year - on - year decrease in exports to China [6]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, domestic and foreign natural rubber futures generally rose, with NR leading the gains. On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2606, and Tokyo RSS3:2608 were 16,510 yuan/ton, 13,735 yuan/ton, 198.70 cents/kg, and 372.10 yen/kg respectively, with环比 increases of 3.19%, 6.76%, 5.24%, and 1.39% compared to the previous period [8][10]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - Basis and Calendar Spread: On March 27, 2026, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU05 was - 160 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 60% and a year - on - year increase of 62.35%. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was - 45 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 190% and a year - on - year increase of 74.29% [14]. - Other Spreads: The spreads of RU - NR and RU - BR decreased, while the spreads of RU - JPX RSS3 and NR - SGX TSR20 increased. The import rubber market's offer first fell and then rose, and the spot price of domestic natural rubber fluctuated widely. The spreads between whole - milk rubber and Thai - mixed rubber, and 3L rubber and Thai - mixed rubber both decreased [16][19][22]. 3.4 Substitute Prices - Due to the continuous impact of the military conflict in the Middle East, the production cost of butadiene rubber has continued to rise. Although the supply price of butadiene rubber has been significantly increased, the production loss situation has not improved. The price difference between high - end and low - end products in the spot market is huge, and downstream terminals are cautious in purchasing [27]. 3.5 Capital Flows - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased, while the settled capital increased. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR increased, and the settled capital also increased [30]. 3.6 Fundamental Data - Supply - The main producing areas in Southeast Asia are in the dry season with less rainfall, and the temperature is generally normal, except for slightly higher temperatures in Indonesia. The global supply pressure is relatively limited in the short term as domestic producing areas are gradually entering the tapping season while overseas output is still at a low level [35][39][41]. - Thailand's rubber export volume in February increased seasonally compared to the previous month but decreased slightly year - on - year. The export volume of mixed rubber and smoked sheets increased year - on - year, while that of latex and standard rubber decreased. The export volume to China also showed a similar trend [58][61]. - Indonesia's total natural rubber exports in February increased compared to the previous month, with a significant increase in mixed rubber exports. The export volume to China also increased significantly [64]. - Vietnam's natural rubber exports in February decreased seasonally and year - on - year, and the export volume to China also decreased [67]. - Cote d'Ivoire's total rubber exports in February decreased compared to the previous month, and the export volume to China decreased even more [71]. - From January to February, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and compound rubber) were 1.1065 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.37%. The imports of Vietnamese standard rubber continued to decline, while the imports of Indonesian mixed rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level year - on - year [75]. - Demand - The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuated slightly. Driven by price increase news, most enterprises had smooth shipments, and short - term production schedules remained positive. The all - steel tires continued the de - stocking trend, while the semi - steel tires' inventory fluctuated at a high level [81]. - From January to February, the exports of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires were at a high level year - on - year, with year - on - year increases of 13.07% and 8.42% respectively. In February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the sales of heavy - duty trucks and passenger cars decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [82]. - From January to February, the freight turnover of road transportation increased by 5.56% year - on - year, while the passenger turnover decreased by 2.38% year - on - year [85]. - Inventory - China's natural rubber inventory continued to decline slightly. The inventory at Qingdao Port changed from a decreasing trend to an increasing trend, especially the general trade shipment volume decreased by 6%. There was a small increase in the Yunnan producing area, and the overseas areas of Thailand and Vietnam were still in the non - tapping period [91]. - As of March 27, 2026, the futures inventory of natural rubber at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 125,400 tons, with a环比 decrease of 0.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.37%. The futures inventory of 20 - number rubber at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 43,600 tons, with a环比 decrease of 9.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.78% [95].