国泰君安期货·原油周度报告-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recovery of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is difficult, and Brent may challenge $150 per barrel. The supply side of crude oil faces systematic risks due to the continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the demand side is in a serious regional shortage and under extensive policy intervention. In the short term, the market will be disturbed by the expectation of peace talks and show a volatile pattern. There is still a chance for oil prices at home and abroad to rise again. The potential downward trend risk may come from the negative feedback of the macro - economy, and the recovery of shipping is difficult in the short term. [5][6] - The short - term valuation is at a medium - high level. The recommended strategies are to hold long positions unilaterally, hold positive spreads in the inter - period, and stop profits at high levels as appropriate. For cross - varieties, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being due to the distorted pricing mechanism. [6] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - The supply side of crude oil is at risk due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Aramco has adjusted its strategy, and the United States has released strategic oil reserves and provided temporary exemptions for Iranian oil. The demand side is in shortage, and countries have taken measures such as restricting exports and using strategic reserves. [6] - In the short term, the market is volatile, and there is a chance for oil prices to rise again. Brent and WTI may challenge the range of $130 - 160 per barrel, and SC may challenge 1000 yuan per barrel. [6] 3.2 Macro - The gold - oil ratio has dropped significantly. In the short term, inflation has risen, and attention should be paid to stagflation trading. The RMB exchange rate has strengthened again, and social financing has stabilized. [19][20][21] 3.3 Supply - OPEC+ decided to gradually exit the additional voluntary production cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day in April 2026 and implement a production adjustment of 206,000 barrels per day. [23] - The production and export situations of various countries are different. For example, the production of some countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia has been affected by attacks, while the production of some countries such as Guyana and Brazil has increased. The United States has released strategic oil reserves, but there is a geographical mismatch problem. [9][10] 3.4 Demand - The refinery operating rates in the United States and Europe have rebounded, while those of Chinese state - owned and private refineries have declined significantly. [66] - Global refinery capacity has changed, with a net increase of 360,000 barrels per day. [69] 3.5 Inventory - The commercial inventory in the United States and the inventory in Cushing have rebounded. The refining profit margin has soared. China has suspended refined oil exports, and there may be a shortage of global naphtha and diesel. The global in - transit crude oil inventory is at a high level, and the domestic refined oil profit margin has declined. [71][73][75][77] 3.6 Price and Spread - The uncertainty of the Iran - US peace talks has increased, and the market risk preference has fluctuated. The spot prices in different regions have different trends. The North American basis has strengthened, the monthly spread has risen significantly, and the SC monthly spread has declined. [81][91][92]