花生：关注基层余货量

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peanut spot market has seen a price decline, with the average price of national general peanuts at 8,045 yuan/ton as of March 26, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.24% from March 19. The futures market had a volatile week, with the main peanut contract (PK2605) reaching a high of 8,338 yuan/ton and a low of 8,102 yuan/ton, closing at 8,122 yuan/ton [1]. - The peanut market outlook is affected by the Iran war, which impacts chemical and oil prices, altering oil mills' purchase rhythms and expectations. High - quality oilseeds are still in demand by oil mills. The remaining peanuts in Henan are expected to become clear around Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The domestic market is in the off - season, and the market is expected to operate stably. In the Northeast, the market is expected to be weakly stable. For futures, it is recommended to go long on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread - The report presents the basis of Henan Baisha peanuts and Xingcheng Xiaoriben peanuts from 2021 - 2026, as well as the 11 - 1 spread (discontinued) and 5 - 10 spread [6][7][8]. 3.2 Price Data - The price of Henan Zhumadian Baisha peanuts was basically flat compared to last week. The arrival volume of 6 oil - peanut markets was about 0.56 million tons, down 43.48% from last week and 13.01% from the same period last year. The arrival volume of 20 domestic trade markets was about 1.04 million tons, down 28.11% from last week and 2.25% from the same period last year [9][10]. 3.3 Supply - The report shows the arrival volume trends of oil - peanuts, commercial peanuts, domestic trade markets, and the import volume of peanuts (discontinued) from different production seasons [12][17][18]. 3.4 Demand - The arrival volume of sample oil mills was about 4.5 million tons, up 3.5% from last week and 50% from the same period last year. The mainstream price of domestic first - grade peanut oil is stable at 14,000 - 15,000 yuan/ton, with weak downstream demand. The mainstream price of peanut meal is 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton, with limited demand. The theoretical profit of peanut processing in some domestic oil mills this week was 171.71 yuan/ton, down 2.3 yuan/ton from last week but up 378.84 yuan/ton from the same period last year. The comprehensive startup rate of sample enterprises was 20.88%, up 10.82% from last week and 9.66% from the same period last year [19]. 3.5 Inventory - The report shows the inventory trends of peanuts and peanut oil in oil mills from different production seasons [23].