碳酸锂：矿端影响逐步扩大

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures and spot has risen, and the basis has weakened. The 2605 contract closed at 168,440 yuan/ton, up 24,580 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2607 contract closed at 168,400 yuan/ton, up 25,300 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price increased by 9,000 yuan/ton week-on-week to 158,000 yuan/ton [2]. - The supply side shows that the weekly output of domestic lithium salt plants has increased, and the weekly shipment volume of Australian mines has declined. The shortage of ore has gradually manifested in the domestic market, and the ore processing fee has dropped to 18,000 - 18,500 yuan/ton, with an inquiry price of 17,000 yuan/ton [3]. - On the demand side, downstream enterprises generally buy and replenish inventory at low prices. The energy storage terminal is strong, and some battery cells report that energy storage orders are scheduled until May - June. In April, the total production of lithium batteries in China increased by 7.3% month-on-month, and energy storage cells accounted for 41.3%. In the automotive sector, although the domestic sales data is not good, the increase in single - vehicle battery capacity and the export demand of electric vehicles can make up for the decline in domestic sales [4]. - In the future, the contradiction on the ore side may further ferment. It is recommended to wait for the callback to the low level for layout. The price range of the futures main contract is expected to be 150,000 - 190,000 yuan/ton. There is no recommendation for inter - period trading, and upstream and downstream enterprises are recommended to use options tools to hedge risks when appropriate [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - This week, the lithium carbonate futures prices of 2605 and 2607 contracts increased, and the spot price also rose. The SMM basis (2605 contract) weakened by 2,020 yuan/ton to - 7,660 yuan/ton, and the 2605 - 2607 contract spread was + 40 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan/ton month - on - month [2]. 3.2 Upstream Supply of Lithium Salt - Lithium Ore - The weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate has increased slightly, mainly concentrated in the spodumene and salt lake sectors. The shipment volume of Australian mines has declined, and the supply of domestic raw materials has decreased marginally. The ore shortage in Zimbabwe has not improved, and some enterprises may jointly shut down local mines if there is no new progress [3]. - The ore processing fee has dropped to 18,000 - 18,500 yuan/ton, and there is an inquiry price of 17,000 yuan/ton, indicating a deepening shortage of ore [3]. 3.3 Mid - stream Consumption of Lithium Salt - Lithium Salt Products - There are multiple charts showing the price trends of lithium carbonate in different regions, the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the processing cost of converting industrial - grade to battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the export volume of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide [15][19]. - The weekly output and monthly output of domestic lithium carbonate, as well as the monthly output of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, are presented in the charts [18][20]. - The monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate has increased this week, with a total inventory of 99,489 tons, an increase of 616 tons from last week. The futures warehouse receipts have a total cancellation of 3,989 lots, with a total of 30,751 lots [4]. 3.4 Downstream Consumption of Lithium Salt - Lithium Batteries and Materials - The monthly production and monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of ternary materials are presented in the charts [21][22]. - The import and export volume of ternary materials and the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries are also shown in the charts [22]. - The production of domestic power lithium batteries and various types of lithium batteries is presented in the charts [23].