铁矿石周度报告-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the expectation of a缓和 in negotiations, the driving force for the iron ore price to rise is weakening, leading to a decline in the ore price. The supply of iron ore is increasing year - on - year, while the demand is recovering slowly, and the port inventory is slightly decreasing from a high level [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Weekly View - Supply: Global shipments reached 3144.30 million tons, a 3.1% week - on - week increase and a 1.9% year - on - year increase. Australian shipments were 1909.40 million tons, up 5.3% week - on - week and 2.4% year - on - year. Brazilian shipments were 548.90 million tons, down 4.0% week - on - week and 13.8% year - on - year. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 2271.60 million tons, a 2.6% week - on - week increase and a 9.5% year - on - year decrease [4]. - Demand: The molten iron output was 231.09 million tons, a 1.3% week - on - week increase and a 2.6% year - on - year decrease. Steel mills' profits are at a low level, and the resumption of molten iron production is slow. Steel mills purchase on demand without excessive restocking [4][5]. - Inventory: The inventory at 45 ports was 17000.31 million tons, a 0.6% week - on - week decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. BHP's iron ore inventory is about 0.2 billion tons, and the available inventory at 45 ports is about 1.5 billion tons, with a relatively low structural inventory [4][5]. 3.2 Iron Ore Price Spreads - Last Friday, the spot price of PB powder was 783 (-12) yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 contract was 812 (-4) yuan/ton. The basis of the 05 contract was 9 (-5) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 09 spread was 24 (-10.5) yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply - Global and Major Mines: Mainstream and non - mainstream shipments are increasing year - on - year. The four major mines are maintaining normal shipping levels. The domestic mines have resumed production after the festival, and the output has increased [5][17][34]. - Specific Data: The global iron ore shipments, Australian shipments, and some mine shipments to China show different trends in week - on - week and year - on - year comparisons. For example, FMG's shipments to China increased by 16.9% week - on - week and 31.0% year - on - year, while Vale's global shipments decreased by 7.9% week - on - week and 20.5% year - on - year [4]. 3.4 Iron Ore Demand - Overall Demand: The demand expectation is dull. After the end of production restrictions, the output has increased, but steel mills' profits are low, and the resumption of molten iron production is slow. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand without excessive restocking [35][39]. - Other Aspects: Steel mills are accelerating the pulling of goods, and the port clearance is stronger than the molten iron production. The medium - grade ore is in short supply, and attention should be paid to the delivery game. The cost - effectiveness of scrap steel is lower than that of molten iron [40][44][46]. 3.5 Iron Ore Inventory - In the context of weak demand expectations, it is expected that steel mills will purchase on demand. The inventory at 45 ports is slightly decreasing from a high level, and the Australian ore inventory has increased significantly [48][50]. 3.6 Iron Ore Cost The rise in oil prices has led to an increase in freight rates, which is reflected in the upward trend of BCI, BDI, and sea freight rates from Western Australia to Qingdao and Tubarao to Qingdao [52].