镍：累库边际放缓，矿端支撑火法成本上移；不锈钢：需求与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The marginal slowdown of inventory accumulation and the rising cost of pyrometallurgy supported by the ore end. The contradiction in the ore end is intensifying, and the marginal cash cost of pyrometallurgy may rise to nearly 135,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, the nickel price is still supported by the contradictions in the ore end and wet - process supply. However, the potential quota revision by the Indonesian APNI Association reduces the upward elasticity of Shanghai nickel. Short - term attention should be paid to the covered strategy, and focus on the nickel ore contradiction in Indonesia [1]. - Stainless Steel: There is a game between demand and cost, and the steel price will fluctuate. The macro - pressure and weak demand have a negative impact, but the raw material cost restricts the downward elasticity, so the steel price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory Tracking - Refined Nickel: On March 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons. LME inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons [3]. - New Energy: On March 26, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines remained unchanged month - on - month at 5, 7, and 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory decreased by 0.6 to 13.0 days month - on - month, and the ternary material inventory decreased by 0.4 to 7.1 days month - on - month [4][5]. - Ferronickel - Stainless Steel: On March 26, the SMM ferronickel full - industry chain inventory decreased by 8% month - on - month to 121,000 metal tons and decreased by 4% week - on - week. In February, the SMM stainless steel mill inventory was 1.65 million tons, with a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 10% and 8% respectively. The Steel Union stainless steel social inventory was 1.1575 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.67% [5]. Market News - Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore as a new source of income for the mining industry, and the details of the revision are basically finalized [5]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months [6]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is between 260 million and 270 million tons [6]. - Philippine miners said that the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [7]. - A landslide occurred in a tailings area in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the operation of the affected area has been suspended [7]. - Sherritt International Corporation has scaled back its operations in Cuba due to limited fuel supply [7]. - PT Weda Bay Nickel's production quota has been cut by 70% compared to 2025 [7]. - Four nickel mining companies in North Maluku Province, Indonesia, have been sanctioned and fined [8]. - Indonesia's estimated nickel ore production in 2026 is about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of ferronickel and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [8]. - The revision of Indonesia's 2026 RKAB is expected to be approved in July, and the nickel production quota may be increased by up to 30% [8]. - Indonesia aims to complete the RKAB approval for mining and coal in March 2026 [8]. - On March 25, the Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the production targets for coal and nickel may be relaxed this year [9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking of Nickel and Stainless Steel The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as prices and spreads in the industrial chain, including 1 imported nickel, ferronickel, stainless steel products, and nickel sulfate [11].