棉花：上涨势头放缓20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures resumed their upward trend after ending the adjustment, with technical buying and short - covering driving each contract to a new high for the year. The market is more concerned about the planting area intention report to be released by USDA on March 31, and the average market expectation is that the U.S. cotton planting area in the 26/27 season will decrease slightly compared with the 25/26 season [1][6]. - The upward momentum of domestic cotton futures has slowed down. Although the rise in foreign cotton futures has narrowed the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, providing positive support for domestic cotton futures, the optimistic expectation for demand in the 25/26 season has been fully traded in the short - term. The increase in cotton import quotas has also eased the concern about tight supply. In the short term, domestic cotton futures lack upward drivers, and the market focus is expected to shift to new - season planting. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a range - bound trend in the short term [1][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - linked | 67.60 | 70.31 | 66.65 | 69.47 | 2.13 | 3.16% | 174,723 | - 78,914 | 139,012 | - 8,589 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - linked | 15,215 | 15,455 | 15,165 | 15,395 | 180 | 1.18% | 1,401,772 | - 677,304 | 531,174 | - 61,277 | | Cotton Yarn Main - linked | 21,465 | 21,710 | 21,380 | 21,435 | - 40 | - 0.19% | 57,830 | - 1,255 | 9,504 | - 5,295 | [5] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton reached a new high for the year. The U.S. cotton weekly export sales data improved slightly, but the improvement was limited. The market is more concerned about the USDA's planting area report [6]. - As of the week ending March 19, 2025/26 U.S. upland cotton weekly contracts were 45,900 tons, a 3% week - on - week increase and a 5% decrease compared with the four - week average. 2026/27 U.S. upland cotton weekly contracts were 6,100 tons. The 2025/26 U.S. upland cotton weekly shipment was 90,800 tons, a 46% week - on - week increase and a 43% increase compared with the four - week average. The total signed and sold volume of U.S. upland cotton and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 2.2449 million tons, accounting for 86% of the annual forecast total export volume; the cumulative export shipment volume was 1.3465 million tons, accounting for 60% of the annual total signed volume [6]. - India: In January, cotton imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The export of raw cotton decreased month - on - month, the export of cotton yarn increased, and the export of textiles increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [7]. - Brazil: The production forecast is stable at around 3.8 million tons. Some are worried that rainfall in April may affect production. The cotton farmer sales rate of the 2025 crop may reach 90% - 95%, and about 60% of the 2026 output is in the hands of traders [8]. - Bangladesh: As Ramadan approaches, import demand has slowed down slightly. The industry is worried about the impact of the Middle - East situation on business operations. Cotton imports in February decreased compared with January and were lower than the same period in 2025 [8][9]. - Pakistan: Cotton planting is progressing actively. Import demand is active, but actual transactions are limited due to rising freight costs. The export demand for yarn has slowed down, but China still has purchasing interest [10]. - Australia: The reservoir water volume is lower than the same period last year. The 2025/26 lint production is expected to be 1 million tons, a 17% decrease from the previous year [11]. - Southeast Asian textile industry: As of the week ending March 27, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 69%, 72%, and 66% respectively [11]. 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton prices rose, and trading became lighter. After the rise in cotton prices, textile mills' purchasing willingness decreased. The mainstream basis of cotton spot prices remained stable, with local sales basis slightly reduced by 10 - 50 yuan/ton [12]. - As of March 27, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 12,434, and the reported warehouse receipts were 339, with a total of 12,773, equivalent to 536,466 tons [12]. - Downstream trading cooled slightly, and yarn mill profits improved. The cotton yarn market was weak, with fewer inquiries and new orders. Spinning mills mainly executed previous orders. The operating rate of spinning mills remained high, and inventory was low. The cotton fabric market was weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The operating rate of weaving mills was 60.5%, and inventory was 24.5 days [13][14]. 3.3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton inventory, weaving mill yarn inventory, spinning mill yarn inventory, cotton fabric enterprise inventory, spinning mill operating rate, cotton fabric enterprise operating rate, cotton yarn profit, cotton fabric profit, cotton 5 - 9 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [16][17][18] 3.4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures continue their upward trend. The market is waiting for the USDA's planting area report, and concerns about the supply of fertilizers due to the Iran situation may affect global cotton planting. The forward December contract is stronger than the near - month contract. - Domestic cotton futures' upward momentum has slowed down. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a range - bound trend in the short term, and the market focus will shift to new - season planting [19]