生猪：去库仍不及预期，L底概率提升

Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The current de - stocking of the pig industry is still falling short of expectations, and the probability of an L - shaped bottom is increasing. The price bottom has not been reached, and the spot price in April is expected to continue to decline. The cycle bottom may shift from a W - shaped to an L - shaped, and the 5 - month contract premium is expanding [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review (3.23 - 3.29) Spot Market - The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 27.25 yuan/kg (unchanged from last week), the price of live pigs in Henan was 9.43 yuan/kg (down from 9.93 yuan/kg last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,536 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). Group enterprises increased their live pig sales, and there was passive pressure on the market. Slaughter volume continued to rise above the seasonal level, and the volume of passive cold storage increased. Secondary fattening re - entered the market in the second half of the week. The average national slaughter weight was 125.89KG, a 0.27% increase from last week [1] Futures Market - The price of the LH2605 contract of live pig futures was weak. The highest price was 10,180 yuan/ton, the lowest was 9,815 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 9,965 yuan/ton (down from 10,220 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the main contract was - 535 yuan/ton (down from - 290 yuan/ton last week) [2] 2. Next Week's Market Outlook (3.30 - 4.5) Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs will be weak. In March, enterprises' willingness to actively sell and de - stock increased, and the sales progress was slightly faster. The slaughter volume was at a high level in the same period of history, but the weight of the pigs did not decrease, and passive inventory accumulation was still occurring, indicating that the inventory volume far exceeded expectations and the price bottom had not been reached. From the supply perspective, the supply of standard pigs will continue to increase until April 2026. After the Spring Festival, passive inventory accumulation continued, and the weight was at the highest level in the same period in recent years. The dual pressure of the production capacity cycle and the inventory cycle will be realized in April - May, and the supply pressure will be at a marginal high. From the demand perspective, the market had strong expectations for the pre - Spring Festival peak season, driving speculative demand in January, but the negative feedback of downstream losses during the peak season was evident, resulting in the increase in the peak season being less than expected. After the post - festival spot price decline, the slaughter volume has remained at a high level above the seasonal level, and speculative demand such as secondary fattening and cold storage has increased, further over - drafting speculative demand. It is expected that the spot price in April may continue to decline [3] Futures Market - The price of the LH2605 contract closed at 9,965 yuan/ton on March 27. The volume of cold storage in March continued to expand, the slaughter volume increased significantly year - on - year, and enterprises increased their sales, but the weight did not decrease. It is expected that the enterprise sales plan in April will continue to increase, indicating that the inventory volume exceeds expectations, the de - stocking process is falling short of expectations, and the price of piglets has dropped significantly, corresponding to a further decline in the cost of slaughter in September. The bottom of this cycle may gradually shift from a W - shaped to an L - shaped, and the premium of the May contract is expanding. Considering the expected price decline in April - May, the driving force for the premium is strengthening. Pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2605 contract is 9,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 10,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Other Data - The basis this week was - 535 yuan/ton, and the LH2605 - LH2607 monthly spread was - 1,215 yuan/ton [9] - The average weight this week was 125.89KG (up from 125.55KG last week). In January, the pork production was 5.36 million tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease; in February, the pork import was 52,100 tons, a 22.77% month - on - month decrease [12]