多晶硅：关注5月底集中注销行情：工业硅：区间震荡格局，上方空间仍有限

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a range - bound pattern with limited upside potential. The market should focus on the upstream resumption rhythm. The 4 - 5 month period is a supply - demand destocking pattern, which supports the bottom of the market. However, the hedging pressure of Xinjiang and Southwest factories may limit the upside. The expected trading range for next week is 8300 - 8800 yuan/ton [6][7]. - The polysilicon market is weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of the concentrated cancellation at the end of May. The supply is increasing while the demand is weak. The market may continue to decline, and the expected trading range for next week is 32000 - 37000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - The industrial silicon mainstream consumption reference prices in East China, Huangpu Port, Kunming, and Tianjin Port have remained relatively stable from March 10 - 27, 2026. For example, the Si5530 price in East China was 9200 yuan/ton for most days during this period [10]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: Upstream resumption is slow. The start - up rate this week is flat compared to last week. Factories in Southwest China are resuming production in small quantities, and factories in Xinjiang have no new start - up plans after resumption. The cost in the dry season in Southwest China is about 10000 yuan/ton (converted to the futures market), and about 9000 yuan/ton or more in the wet season. The current futures price does not provide a suitable hedging position for Southwest manufacturers [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased by 0.7 million tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.67 million tons, with the overall industry inventory remaining flat [3][12]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The weekly production of polysilicon has increased month - on - month. There will be production capacity resumption from April to May, bringing supply increments. The current factory inventory is about 340,000 tons, and the overall industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to 5 months of consumption, at a relatively high level. The average full cost is about 45,000 yuan/ton, and the cash cost is about 35,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Demand: The silicon wafer production schedule has decreased week - on - week. The cancellation of export tax rebates has ended the rush - export market, and domestic demand has not improved significantly. Although European orders have increased temporarily, there is no obvious continuity. As it approaches the end of May, the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts will put pressure on the market [5]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Silicone - Supply: The weekly production of DMC has increased month - on - month, and most silicone factories have resumption plans. - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, and product prices have not increased. The inventory of silicone has been destocked, and the apparent demand has increased slightly month - on - month. The sustainability of demand needs attention [3]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloys - The price of aluminum alloys has been continuously falling, the demand market has increased slowly, and most are in a wait - and - see state. The overseas demand has not improved, and due to stricter overseas traceability requirements, the purchase of Xinjiang silicon is restricted [3].