金银周报-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Focus on the switch between liquidity contraction and safe - haven trading. Gold is in a state of shock. The price range is 970 - 1050 yuan/gram. The first wave of liquidity contraction has been relatively sufficient. If the U.S. stocks accelerate their decline and there is a joint sell - off of all - market assets in the future, there may be a second - round sell - off of gold. However, the rebound of gold on Friday night when the U.S. stocks broke down may indicate the return of safe - haven sentiment. Gold has the value of the first - wave bottom - fishing, and it is mainly in a range - bound state in the medium - term, with the decline risk not fully cleared, but it already has buying cost - effectiveness [3]. - Silver: The gold - silver ratio continues to be repaired. Silver is in a state of shock. The price range is 16000 - 18500 yuan/kilogram. Silver bears greater elasticity and volatility, and the gold - silver ratio is in an upward - repair channel [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Spread - Gold: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold main contract rebounded to 3.648 dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was 2.3 dollars/ounce [8][9]. - Silver: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver main contract rebounded to - 0.045 dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was - 2.22 dollars/ounce [8][15]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Spread - Gold: This week, the gold spot - futures spread was - 6.21 yuan/gram, at the lower edge of the historical range [19]. - Silver: This week, the silver spot - futures spread was - 22 yuan/gram, at the upper edge of the historical range [22]. 3.1.3 Inter - month Spread - Gold: This week, the gold inter - month spread was 8.22 yuan/gram, at the upper edge of the historical range [26]. - Silver: This week, the silver inter - month spread was 51 yuan/gram, at the lower edge of the historical range [29]. 3.1.4 Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - Buying TD and shorting Shanghai gold: The total cost is 20.20 yuan/gram [31]. - Buying Shanghai gold December contract and shorting June contract: The total cost is 5.93 yuan/gram [32]. - Buying TD and shorting Shanghai silver: The total cost is 354.11 yuan/kilogram [33]. - Buying Shanghai silver December contract and shorting June contract: The total cost is 341.50 yuan/kilogram [34]. 3.1.5 Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees for Gold and Silver Spot in Shanghai Gold Exchange This week, for gold, the long pays the short, indicating strong delivery power; for silver, the short pays the long, indicating strong receiving power [35]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - Gold: This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rebounded to 52.4%. The domestic gold futures inventory decreased by 0.2 tons [37][43]. - Silver: This week, COMEX silver inventory decreased by 136 tons to 10211 tons, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 23.2%. The domestic silver futures inventory increased by 9.3 tons to 371 tons [39][43]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - commercial Positions This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold rebounded slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver rebounded slightly [45]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - Gold: This week, the SPDR gold ETF position decreased by 4.29 tons, and the domestic gold ETF position decreased by 12.4 tons [49]. - Silver: This week, the SLV silver ETF position increased by 150 tons [53]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio This week, the gold - silver ratio rebounded from 62 in the previous week to 66 [55]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rate This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.188%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 2.03% [57]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [62]. 3.2.2 Inflation and Retail Sales Performance No specific analysis conclusions are provided in the content, only relevant data charts are presented [66]. 3.2.3 Non - farm Employment Performance No specific analysis conclusions are provided in the content, only relevant data charts are presented [68]. 3.2.4 Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions No specific analysis content is provided in the content. 3.2.5 Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index No specific analysis content is provided in the content. 3.2.6 Fed Rate - cut Probability No specific content is provided in the text, only a title is given.