美豆周度报告-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. The market is expected to be generally volatile and slightly bullish, with a trading range of 1050 - 1250 cents per bushel [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - This week, the price of US soybeans fluctuated sideways, with a weekly decline of 2 cents per bushel to 1159.25 cents per bushel. US soybean oil prices rose, while US soybean meal prices fell [1]. - As of March 21, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil was 67.7%, slower than 76.1% in the same period last year but slightly faster than the five - year average. Future weather in Brazil and Argentina is generally favorable for soybean growth and harvest [2]. 3.2 Market Concerns - The situation of mutual visits between Chinese and US leaders: Trump's visit to China has been postponed, but if the Middle East situation eases, another visit is expected [3]. - The transmission of rising crude oil prices to planting: It will directly increase the costs of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel. If all prices increase by 30%, the cost of US soybeans will increase by about 70 cents, and that of Brazilian soybeans will increase by 102 cents. Higher fertilizer prices may also prompt some farmers to switch from corn to soybeans [3]. - The release rhythm of South American supply pressure: As the harvest in Brazil accelerates and precipitation in Argentina improves, the supply pressure of spot soybeans will increase [3]. 3.3 Overall View and Long - Short Logic of US Soybeans - Overall view: There is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. The market is generally volatile and slightly bullish, with a trading range of 1050 - 1250 cents per bushel [5]. - Short - side logic: After China purchases US soybeans, the Trump administration's support for the biodiesel addition policy may weaken; the harvest progress in Brazil is accelerating, and the shipping speed has basically returned to normal, resulting in high global spot pressure; the weather in Argentina has improved, and the previously damaged yield per unit area is expected to recover [5]. - Long - side logic: If Trump visits China, China is expected to purchase an additional 8 million tons of soybeans in the current crop year; the US biodiesel policy is beneficial to soybean consumption; rising crude oil prices support costs [5]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Market Prices - As of March 27, 2026, the price of the continuous US soybean futures contract fell 2 cents per bushel to 1159.25 cents per bushel; the continuous US soybean meal futures contract fell 12.7 dollars per short ton to 315.3 dollars per short ton; the continuous US soybean oil futures contract rose 1.9 cents per pound to 67.41 cents per pound [5]. - As of March 26, 2026, the spot soybean purchase price in Illinois rose 3.25 cents per bushel to 1166.25 cents per bushel compared with the previous week; the soybean quotation at the US Gulf port rose 8.75 cents per bushel to 1240.75 cents per bushel compared with the previous week [6]. - As of March 26, 2026, the spot price of soybeans in the inland region of Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose 2.62 reais per bag to 103.37 reais per bag compared with the previous week; the spot price at the Paranagua port rose 0.63 reais per bag to 130.01 reais per bag compared with the previous week [6]. - As of March 25, 2026, the FOB price of Argentine soybeans for May shipment rose 6 dollars per ton to 418 dollars per ton; the price for June shipment rose 4 dollars per ton to 418 dollars per ton [6]. 3.5 Main Producing Area Weather Conditions - In Brazil, precipitation in the next week will be mainly concentrated in the northern and western regions, with slightly less precipitation in the central and southern regions. In the next two weeks, precipitation will be mainly concentrated in the northern and western regions. Overall, the precipitation in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean harvest and transportation [20]. - In Argentina, precipitation in the Buenos Aires and Cordoba regions in the next two weeks will be good for soybean growth, while precipitation in the central and northern regions will be slightly less. Overall, the weather for the final growth of soybeans is acceptable, and the average yield per unit area is expected to recover to some extent [20]. 3.6 US Soybean Demand - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the US soybean export inspection and quarantine volume was 1.3442 million tons, compared with 0.9065 million tons in the previous week; the net sales in the current crop year were 0.6689 million tons, compared with 0.2982 million tons in the previous week; the net sales in the next crop year were 27,000 tons, compared with 6,600 tons in the previous week; the shipment to China was 0.6649 million tons, compared with 0.5458 million tons in the previous week. Of the 12 million tons of US soybeans purchased by China, 8.5241 million tons have been shipped, and 3.47 million tons remain unshipped [39]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume in the US in February was 208.78 million bushels, the highest level for the same period in history, indicating strong domestic demand [39]. 3.7 CFTC Positions and Planting Costs - As of March 25, 2026, the net long positions of funds in soybean futures and options were 203,200 contracts, a decrease of 10,500 contracts from the previous week; the net long positions in soybean oil futures and options were 117,100 contracts, a decrease of 1,200 contracts from the previous week; the net long positions in soybean meal futures and options were 107,900 contracts, an increase of 24,000 contracts from the previous week [44]. - In terms of planting costs, the cost in the US remains high, while the cost in Brazil is lower than that in the US but has also increased compared with the previous year. Before the rise in crude oil prices, the estimated planting cost in the US was 1200 - 1250 cents per bushel, and in Brazil, it was 950 - 1000 cents per bushel. If calculated based on the current energy cost, it is expected to increase by 5 - 10% on this basis [44].