铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For aluminum, the supply of Middle - Eastern aluminum plants is disturbed again. There are rumors of a 320,000 - ton production cut in Bahrain this week, and news of equipment attacks on EGA and Bahrain Aluminium over the weekend. The potential increase on Monday should be noted. The global aluminum supply - demand balance in 2026 is expected to be in a shortage of about 590,000 tons, but if the overseas supply reduction does not expand in the second quarter, the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [3]. - For alumina, the spot price is still stable with a small increase. The futures and spot prices diverged last week. The futures price fell while the spot price rose slightly. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of warehouse - receipt shipment after the futures price decline. The short - term surplus contradiction in the alumina spot market is not significant [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - Price Difference: The A00 spot premium and alumina spot premium strengthened this week. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium changed from - 170 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changed from - 180 yuan/ton to - 175 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changed from - 318 yuan/ton to - 128 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina changed from - 263 yuan/ton to - 88 yuan/ton [7]. - Monthly Price Difference: The near - month price difference of Shanghai aluminum declined [10]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased slightly, and the trading volume decreased significantly. The open interest of the alumina main contract decreased slightly but remained at a historical high, and the trading volume decreased slightly [13]. - Open Interest - Inventory Ratio: The open interest - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum declined, and that of alumina decreased slightly and was at a historical low [18]. 3.2 Inventory - Bauxite: As of March 27, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 142,900 tons week - on - week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of February, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises in China decreased by 6.6232 million tons month - on - month. The port shipping volume and sea - floating inventory of Guinea and Australia decreased. The shipping volume from Australian ports increased slightly, while that from Guinean ports decreased slightly. The bauxite arrival volume decreased significantly [23][28][29]. - Alumina: The total national alumina inventory continued to increase, but the increase slowed down. The inventory in alumina plants decreased, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants increased, the port inventory decreased, and the inventory in stations/in - transit increased. As of March 26, the national alumina inventory was 5.379 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [42][47]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of March 26, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 14,000 tons to 1.371 million tons this week [48]. - Aluminum Rod: The spot inventory and in - plant inventory of downstream aluminum rods decreased this week [52]. - Aluminum Profiles & Plate - Foil: As of February, the finished - product inventory ratio and raw - material inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles and plate - foil increased slightly [55]. 3.3 Production - Bauxite: In February, the domestic bauxite supply remained stable, but the SMM - caliber domestic bauxite production decreased slightly. The bauxite production in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi decreased to varying degrees [60][63]. - Alumina: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of March 27, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 92.2 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0 tons. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.782 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 tons, and the supply - side loosening pattern remained unchanged [67]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of February, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. As of March 26, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum was 860,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30 tons. The proportion of molten aluminum decreased seasonally [73]. - Downstream Processing: This week, the production of recycled aluminum rods increased by 2,170 tons week - on - week, the production of aluminum rods decreased by 5,200 tons week - on - week, and the production of aluminum plate - foil increased by 1,300 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises increased by 1.1% week - on - week, the operating rate of aluminum plate - strip increased by 1 percentage point, and the operating rate of aluminum foil remained unchanged [79][80]. 3.4 Profit - Alumina: In February, the alumina profit continued to decline slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina was 110.3 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased slightly, while the cost side of Guangxi alumina was relatively strong, and its profit performance was better than other regions [89]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum profit remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies increased uncertainty and interfered with market expectations [99]. - Downstream Processing: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 30 yuan/ton week - on - week, but the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [100]. 3.5 Consumption - Import Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum increased [109]. - Export: In February 2025, the total export volume of aluminum products decreased slightly, a month - on - month decrease of 111,000 tons. The export profit and loss of aluminum processing materials showed differentiation, and the export demand for aluminum products was hindered by trade - policy adjustments [111][113]. - Apparent Demand: The transaction area of commercial housing was at a low level, and the automobile sales volume decreased month - on - month [117].