铜产业链周度报告-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is facing a complex situation with macro uncertainties and micro improvements. The price of copper is supported within the range of 88,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton. Macro factors such as geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the strength of the US dollar have a significant impact on copper prices. Micro factors, including supply and demand dynamics and inventory changes, also play a role in price support. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: Volatility in INE, SHFE, COMEX, and LME has rebounded. LME copper price volatility is around 15%, and SHFE copper volatility is about 23%. [9] - Term Spread: The B - structure of SHFE copper has narrowed, and the LME copper spot discount has also narrowed. The COMEX copper near - end C - structure has expanded. [11][13] - Position: Positions in INE, SHFE, and LME copper have decreased. SHFE copper positions decreased by 40,000 to 534,000 hands. [14] - Fund and Industry Positions: The net short positions of LME commercial enterprises have decreased. The net long positions of CFTC non - commercial have also decreased. [19] - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot discount has expanded, and the Yangshan Port copper premium has increased. The US copper premium remains at 7.5 cents/pound, Rotterdam copper premium at 190 dollars/ton, and Southeast Asian copper premium at 95 dollars/ton. [23][26] - Inventory: Global total copper inventory has decreased, with an increase in LME inventory and a significant decrease in social inventory. COMEX inventory has increased and is at a historically high level. [27][30] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has declined, and that of SHFE copper is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. [31] 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Copper concentrate imports increased year - on - year, but processing fees continued to be weak. The port inventory of copper concentrate increased, and smelting losses narrowed. [34][37] - Recycled Copper: Recycled copper imports decreased year - on - year, while domestic production increased significantly. The scrap - to - refined copper price difference rebounded but was still below the break - even point, and import profitability narrowed. [38][43] - Blister Copper: Blister copper imports decreased month - on - month, and processing fees rebounded. [47] - Refined Copper: Domestic refined copper production increased year - on - year, imports decreased, and the profitability of copper spot imports narrowed. [50] 3.3 Demand End - 开工率: In February, the operating rates of copper product enterprises rebounded month - on - month but were lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises rebounded marginally in the week of March 26. [54] - Profit: Copper rod processing fees are at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees have declined. Brass plate and strip processing fees have increased, and lithium - ion copper foil processing fees have remained stable at a low level. [56][60] - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has decreased marginally. The raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history, and that of copper tube enterprises is at a historically low level. [61] - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rod enterprises is at a high level compared to the same period in history, the finished product inventory of wire and cable enterprises has decreased, and that of copper tube enterprises is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. [64] 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: Apparent consumption has weakened marginally, and power grid investment remains an important support. The actual consumption of copper in China is good, but both actual and apparent consumption have decreased year - on - year. Power grid investment growth has slowed down. [67] - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production: In February, domestic air - conditioner production was 12.898 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.16%. Domestic new - energy vehicle production was 694,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 21.85%. [69]