铅产业链周度报告-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lead show a decrease in inventory, which supports the price. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral, and the price range is 16,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton [3]. - This week, lead prices fluctuated at a low level. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East put pressure on risk assets, but factors such as reduced production of recycled lead and increased demand supported the price. The supply of primary lead increased, while some recycled lead enterprises cut production. Downstream enterprises increased raw material replenishment at low prices, causing a rapid decline in domestic social inventory. It is expected that the price will be supported, and appropriate low - buying is recommended. When the profit of recycled lead is repaired, long - positions can be closed. Attention can be paid to the possibility of term positive spreads [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, and Position - Price: The Shanghai Lead Index fluctuated between 16,300 - 16,500 yuan/ton this week. The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract last week was 16,555 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.63%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,455 yuan/ton, with a night - session decrease of 0.60%. The LmeS - Lead 3 price last week was 1,935.5, with a weekly increase of 2.46% [7][8]. - Spread: The LME lead 0 - 3 spot discount is relatively large. The spread between recycled lead and primary lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton [8]. - Inventory: As of March 26, the domestic lead social inventory was 57,800 tons, lower than 77,600 tons on March 19. The Shanghai Lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5,711 tons, and the total Shanghai Lead inventory decreased by 8,531 tons. The LME lead inventory decreased by 1,025 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio increased by 2.32% [7][8]. - Transaction and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 19,821 lots compared to the previous week, and the position decreased by 27,025 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 decreased by 2,881 lots, and the position increased by 6,194 lots [8]. 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, and Recycled Lead - Lead Concentrate: The import volume, actual consumption, and production of lead concentrate are presented in the report. The import TC and domestic TC are also shown. The lead concentrate smelting profit and the lead concentrate operating rate are also included [23][25][26]. - Primary Lead: The production and weekly operating rate of primary lead are provided. The by - products of primary lead, such as silver and sulfuric acid, are also mentioned [30][33]. - Recycled Lead: The production, operating rate, cost, and profit of recycled lead are presented. The raw material inventory of recycled lead smelting enterprises and the price of waste electric vehicle batteries are also included [32][37][38]. - Import and Export: The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of lead ingots, the import profit and loss, and the export volume of lead ingots are shown [40]. 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Battery and Terminal - Lead - Acid Battery: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries, the monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, and the export volume of batteries are presented [43]. - Terminal Consumption: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles are shown [45].