原木周度报告-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the demand for logs rebounds, the port departure volume increases, the supply remains at a normal level, the port inventory is depleted, and combined with the increase in shipping freight, the log price rebounds [5]. - In the medium - term, the supply will increase, the demand will recover slowly, and the port inventory may be depleted from a high level. The log supply is expected to maintain a normal level referring to the shipping schedule rhythm, while the weak new construction in the real estate sector on the demand side continues to drag down the log demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trend - The market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, and the positive spread widens [3]. 3.2 Spot Price Trend - For 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, the prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 860 yuan/m³ and 810 yuan/m³ respectively compared to last week [7]. - For 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/m³ (1.3%) to 780 yuan/m³, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 780 yuan/m³ [7]. - For 3.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/m³ (2.9%) to 720 yuan/m³, and the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 730 yuan/m³ [7]. - For 5.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong remained unchanged at 950 yuan/m³, and the price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/m³ (-2.3%) to 850 yuan/m³ [7]. - For 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/m³ (1.3%) to 810 yuan/m³, and the price in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/m³ (-1.3%) to 790 yuan/m³ [7]. - For 5.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/m³ (2.7%) to 750 yuan/m³, and the price in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/m³ (-1.3%) to 750 yuan/m³ [7]. - For 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce, the prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 1150 yuan/m³ [7]. 3.3 Supply - New Zealand log shipping schedule data shows multiple shipments with different volumes and expected arrival dates at various Chinese and Korean ports from March 12 to March 27, 2026 [19]. - The arrival volume of logs at Chinese ports is increasing, as shown by the comparison of arrival volume data from 2023 to 2026 at ports such as China's main ports, Lanshan Port, Taicang W万方 Port, and Xinminzhou Port [20]. 3.4 Demand and Inventory - In terms of port inventory, the total inventory at Lanshan Port decreased by 2.40 million m³ (-9.4%), the total inventory at Xinminzhou Port decreased by 2.70 million m³ (-11.3%), the total inventory at Jiangdu Port decreased by 2.61 million m³ (-27.0%), and the total inventory at Taicang Port decreased by 0.73 million m³ (-1.4%) compared to last week [22]. - In terms of daily average shipment volume, the total shipment volume at Jiangdu Port increased by 0.07 million m³, and the total shipment volume at Taicang Port increased by 0.58 million m³ [22]. 3.5 Other Price - Directly Affecting Factors - The dry bulk BDI decreased by 25 (-1.2%) to 2031 [26]. - The handy - size BHSI decreased by 31 (-4.2%) to 713 [26]. - The crude oil BDTI increased by 775 (26.2%) to 3,737 [26]. - The SCFI comprehensive index increased by 120 (7.0%) to 1,827 [26]. - The USD/CNY exchange rate increased by 0.013 (0.2%) to 6.914 [26]. - The USD/NZD exchange rate increased by 0.017 (1.0%) to 1.742 [26].