动力煤产业链周度报告-20260329

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Thermal Coal Industry Chain - Report Date: March 29, 2026 - Research Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Analyst: Fan Yuanyuan [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After a week of sharp increase, the inversion of import price difference has been alleviated, and the price advantage of imported coal has reappeared. With the emergence of auction failures in the production areas, there is a callback pressure on coal prices in the short term. In April, the coal market is intertwined with long and short factors, and the price may fluctuate in the range of 730 - 780 yuan/ton. In the medium and long term, the substitution of thermal power by new energy will continue, and the demand for coal in the power system will peak and gradually decline during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. It is expected that the central price of coal will rise this year, and the long-term agreement price still has support [2] Summary by Directory 1. Price - Domestic Price: As of March 27, the 5800 kcal index in Yulin was 649.0 yuan/ton, up 40.0 yuan/ton week-on-week; the 5500 kcal index in Ordos was 577.0 yuan/ton, up 46.0 yuan/ton week-on-week; the 5500 kcal index in Datong was 620.0 yuan/ton, up 27.0 yuan/ton week-on-week. At Qinhuangdao Port, the price of 5500 kcal coal was reported at 763.0 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the price of 5000 kcal coal was reported at 683.0 yuan/ton, up 29.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [7] - Import Price: The CCI imported 4700 index was reported at 86.0 US dollars/ton, unchanged week-on-week, and the CCI imported 3800 index was reported at 70.0 US dollars/ton, unchanged week-on-week [7] 2. Supply - Domestic Production (Weekly): From March 19 - 25, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in the Three Western Regions was 93.91%, an increase of 1.93 percentage points from the previous period. The factors affecting coal production capacity in 2026 include the withdrawal of backward production capacity, the possible withdrawal or conversion of uncompleted approved increased production capacity into reserve capacity, and the disposal of increased production capacity that fails to fulfill the thermal coal contract [13] - Domestic Production (Monthly): In January - February 2026, the national raw coal production was 762.89 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. The production in the main producing areas still maintained a growth trend. The top three provinces in terms of production were Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, with a total production of 541.508 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.90% and accounting for 70.98% of the national total [14] - Seaborne Coal: The arrival volume of imported coal at ports is weak, and the freight rate has回调 from a high level [17] - Import (Monthly): In January - February 2026, the national imported coal was 77.222 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. In February, the import volume was 30.9427 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.95%. In January, the import volume was 46.2796 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 10.82%. Since 2026, the coal exports from Indonesia have remained weak, with many policy interferences [23] 3. Inventory - Mine: The inventory at the production area decreased month-on-month [25] - Port: The northern ports continued to accumulate inventory, but the accumulation rate slowed down. As of March 27, the total inventory of northern ports (excluding Huanghua) was 27.09 million tons, an increase of 1.59 million tons week-on-week [2] 4. Transportation - The port inflow increased and the outflow decreased. The average daily inflow of ports this week was 1.4354 million tons, an increase of 34,600 tons month-on-month, and the average daily outflow was 1.1412 million tons, a decrease of 138,400 tons month-on-month [2] 5. Demand - Power Demand: The inventory of coastal power plants has decreased. In the first two months of this year, the total social electricity consumption in China increased by 6.1% year-on-year. From January - February, the thermal power generation increased by 3.3% year-on-year. In the next 10 days, there will be continuous rainy and significantly more precipitation in the southeast of Northwest China, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, and the northeast of Inner Mongolia, etc. [40][48][51] - Non - power Demand: The demand for building materials and metallurgy is weak, while the demand for chemical coal remains high. This week, the blast furnace operating rate was 81.03% month-on-month, and the clinker production capacity utilization rate was 58.83% [59]