聚烯烃周报：国泰君安期货·能源化工-20260329

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report Plastic - Geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions support the price of plastics. The supply of raw materials is expected to shrink, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. However, downstream demand is resistant, and the cost transfer is difficult [6]. - The profit of the production end is under pressure, and the import profit is improved. It is recommended to be bullish on the single - side, wait and see on the inter - period, and wait and see on the inter - variety [6]. Polypropylene - Raw material shortages lead to a decline in the supply center, and the price may be strong in the second quarter under the dual resonance of cost increase and supply contraction. However, downstream demand resistance exists, and cost transfer requires time [97]. - The overall profit is compressed, and the profit of coal - based production is repaired. It is recommended to be bullish on the single - side with high risks, wait for inventory digestion in the inter - period, and wait and see on the inter - variety [97]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic Price & Spread - Futures prices, spot prices, and spreads have changed. The basis of each region has weakened, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased [9][13]. - The price increase of overseas PE has slowed down, and the import window has closed [16][23]. Supply - The start - up rate of PE has decreased, and the supply is expected to shrink. The new production capacity in the early stage has ended, and the production capacity before the 2605 contract is limited [42][40]. - The maintenance plan has increased, and the loss of production is obvious [50]. - The import volume may decrease, and the export volume has increased [57][60]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up rate has increased slowly, and the demand is mainly rigid. The inventory of the middle - and upper - reaches has accumulated, and the structure is differentiated [6][66]. Polypropylene Price & Spread - Futures and spot prices have changed, the basis has weakened, and the 5 - 9 spread has declined [108]. - The price increase of overseas PP has slowed down, and the export signing has improved [110]. Supply - The start - up rate of PP has decreased, and the supply center has declined. The new production capacity in the early stage is large, and the production capacity before the 2605 contract is limited [141][140]. - The maintenance plan has increased, and the loss of production may remain high [150]. - The import volume has decreased to a new low, and the export volume has increased [155]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up rate has increased, but the cost transfer is difficult. The industrial inventory has continued to decline [97][160].