燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告：国泰君安期货·能源化工-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, global fuel oil prices continued to decline, approaching the levels at the beginning of the conflict. Due to increased exports from the Middle East and Russia, the spot market has been effectively replenished. Before the geopolitical issues further escalate, the market will reverse the previous risk premium. The price and crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil declined significantly this week [4]. - In the long - and medium - term, for the price to continue to fall, the Middle East's exports need to gradually recover, or Russia's exports need to reach a historical high. As time passes, during the peak seasons of marine fuel and power generation, prices may regain upward momentum [4]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, in addition to Kuwait being blocked, some countries' low - sulfur exports are also showing a downward trend, especially Brazil, which has maintained stable exports to the Asian market. This will keep the Asia - Pacific spot market tight. However, the east - west arbitrage window has shown signs of opening, which may attract more European spot goods to flow to Asia [4]. - In China, although market news indicates that major refineries tend to increase low - sulfur production in the future, actual processing data shows that some refineries' operations are still declining due to raw material issues. Whether sufficient supply can be maintained in April remains highly uncertain. The low - sulfur marine fuel spot in the domestic bonded area and the deliverable supply on the LU futures may remain tight in April [4]. - The estimated price range for FU is 4300 - 4900, and for LU is 5100 - 5800 [4]. - Investment strategies include: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices may still correct in the short term, but the supply gap will keep prices at a high level. 2) Inter - period: The inter - period spread structure of FU and LU has returned to backwardation. As long as the spot supply gap caused by the conflict persists, the backwardation structure will continue. 3) Inter - variety: The crack spreads of FU and LU have temporarily fallen to a low level; there is a certain probability that the LU - FU spread will continue to narrow [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - Refinery Operations: The report presents the capacity utilization rates of independent refineries, major refineries, and general refineries in China, as well as the maintenance volumes of global hydrocracking units, FCC units, coking units, and CDU units from 2018 - 2026 [6][7][8][11]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume: It shows the monthly production, domestic commodity volume, and low - sulfur production of Chinese refineries from 2021 - 2026 [15]. Demand - Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data: It includes the monthly sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, and the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2019 - 2026 [18]. Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: It shows the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2026 [21][22]. Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: It presents the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore and Fujairah from 2018 - 2026 [26]. - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2026 [28]. - US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices: It includes the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, and the price of low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2026 [30]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, Singapore, and the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2026 [32][33][35]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: It includes the high - and low - sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2026 [42]. - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread: It shows the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2026 [43]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spread: It presents the month spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [44]. Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 [48][49]. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It includes the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes, with data on major importing and exporting regions [51][53]. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes, with data on major importing and exporting regions [54][56]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - Review: Recently, the domestic - foreign spot price spread has continued to decline, and the spread between futures prices and foreign spot prices has also been gradually narrowing [59]. - Logic: With the current geopolitical conflict in a stable phase, as foreign spot prices decline, domestic futures prices are gradually reversing more risk premiums. The relatively sufficient deliverable supply has led to a greater decline in the prices of domestic FU and LU, causing the domestic - foreign price spread to continue to narrow [60]. - Price Spread Data: It provides the domestic - foreign price spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, and various futures contracts on different dates in March 2026 [61]. FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - It shows the position and volume changes of FU and LU from 2020 - 2026, including main contracts, continuous contracts, and first - month contracts [69][70][72]. FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - It shows the changes in the warehouse receipt quantities of FU and LU from 2020 - 2026 [81][82].