纸浆周度报告：国泰君安期货·能源化工-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the imported pulp spot market is expected to continue the stalemate, with pulp prices in a dilemma. On one hand, high foreign offers and traders' holding costs limit the downside space; on the other hand, weak downstream demand and pressured margins limit the upside. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in foreign offers, port destocking rhythm, and downstream base paper price transmission [97]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - As of March 26, 2026, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 623,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 122,000 tons or 24.4%. Qingdao Port's inventory was 1,576,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 tons or 1.1%. Gaolan Port's inventory was 70,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons or 4.5%. The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2,395,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 98,000 tons or 4.3% [5][6]. - Suzano will increase the offer of eucalyptus pulp in the Asian market by $20/ton and in the European and American markets by $50/ton in April 2026, effective April 1st [6]. - Arauco adjusted its March pulp offers, with softwood pulp at $680/ton, hardwood pulp Star at $620/ton (75% supply), and natural pulp Venus at $620/ton [7]. - The environmental impact assessment of the 5.57 - million - ton expansion project of Liansheng Pulp and Paper (Zhangzhou) Co., Ltd. was publicly announced. The project has a construction period of 6 years and an investment of 17.6 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On March 27, 2026, the basis of Silver Star was - 2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 85.71%; the basis of Russian Needle was - 152 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7.32%; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 150 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [14]. - On March 27, 2026, the 05 - 07 month spread was not provided, and the 07 - 09 month spread was - 42 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 27.59%; the 09 - 11 month spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 28.00% [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The spread between Silver Star and Goldfish and between Russian Needle and Goldfish remained stable. On March 27, 2026, the Silver Star - Goldfish spread was 600 yuan/ton, and the Russian Needle - Goldfish spread was 450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [23][25]. - The import profits of softwood and hardwood pulp improved week - on - week. On March 27, 2026, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 427 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.66%; the import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 324 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.24% [28]. - The price of the main pulp contract rose from a low level. The spot price of imported softwood pulp increased with the market, but downstream acceptance of high prices was low. The spot price of imported hardwood pulp rose slightly, but downstream replenishment was cautious [30][35]. - On March 27, 2026, the prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood were 5,200 yuan/ton, 5,450 yuan/ton, and 5,450 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 0.97%, 0.93%, and 0.93% [33]. - On March 27, 2026, the prices of hardwood pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird were 4,600 yuan/ton, 4,600 yuan/ton, and 4,550 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.10%, 1.10%, and 1.11% [37]. - On March 27, 2026, the prices of natural pulp (Venus) and chemimechanical pulp (Kunhe) were 4,800 yuan/ton and 3,800 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [40]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase prices of some paper enterprises in East China increased this week. On March 27, 2026, the purchase prices of eucalyptus chips by Liansheng Pulp and Paper and poplar chips by Wuzhou Special Paper were 1,260 yuan/ton and 1,340 yuan/ton respectively [42][44]. - The supply of domestic pulp decreased this period. On March 26, 2026, the daily average price of Chinese chemimechanical pulp was 3,816.67 yuan/ton, and the daily ex - factory price of Asia - Pacific Senbo's hardwood pulp was 4,850 yuan/ton [46][48]. - In February 2026, the pulp port inventory in Europe increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In January 2026, the global pulp outbound volume decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [50][52]. - In January 2026, the shipment volume of W20 softwood pulp was low and the inventory was high; the inventory of hardwood pulp decreased, the shipment volume increased, and the inventory days dropped to a year - on - year low [54][56]. - In January 2026, the export volume of softwood pulp from five countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, Sweden, and the United States) to China continued to increase month - on - month. In February 2026, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China decreased seasonally [58][60]. - In January 2026, the export volume of hardwood pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China decreased month - on - month. In February 2026, the export volume of Brazilian and Uruguayan hardwood pulp to China increased month - on - month, while that of Chile decreased [64][63]. - From January to February 2026, the cumulative import volume of Chinese softwood pulp decreased by 6.96% year - on - year, and that of hardwood pulp decreased by 5.04% year - on - year [66]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic offset paper market declined this period. Supply increased, but demand was weak, and the market was dull [70]. - The domestic coated paper price declined slightly this period. Supply increased, but demand was weak, and the market was dull [74]. - The white cardboard price declined this period. Supply increased, but the cost pressure from imported wood pulp made large manufacturers maintain a price - increasing attitude [78]. - The tissue paper price declined this period. Demand was weak, and the cost support from pulp was not strong [82]. - In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and Western medicines, and tobacco and alcohol products increased month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased month - on - month. The retail sales of cultural and office supplies and cosmetics were at a high level year - on - year [88]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On March 27, 2026, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 170,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.32%; the warehouse receipt quantity in factories was 15,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.76% [89]. - As of March 27, 2026, the inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,576,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07%; the inventory at Changshu Port was 623,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.35%; the inventory at Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao Ports was 196,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.45%. The total inventory of the five ports was 2,395,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.27% [94].