螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The cost support for steel prices is weakening, and there is a risk of a price correction. The supply - demand situation does not support a significant increase in steel prices, and the high inventory level continues to suppress prices. The rise of raw materials has encountered obstacles [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Macroeconomy - The macro - environment is generally favorable. In 2026, the government aims for GDP growth of 4.5% - 5%, a town survey unemployment rate of around 5.5%, and a CPI increase of about 2%. Key fiscal and monetary policy tools include a fiscal deficit rate of about 4%, the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (250 billion yuan for consumer goods trade - ins, 800 billion yuan for "two - major" construction), 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds, and 755 billion yuan in central budgetary investment [6][8] 3.2 Industry Chain - Supply - demand perspective: The steel inventory level is high, and the supply - demand situation drives prices downward [9] - Raw materials: The rise of steel - making raw materials has encountered obstacles. The price of iron ore is expected to decline due to the weakening of driving factors; the price of coking coal has not broken through the upper limit of 1,330 yuan/ton; the upward logic of manganese - silicon is weakening [13][17] 3.3 Rebar - Basis and spread: The demand is gradually entering the peak season. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3,220 (- 10) yuan/ton, the 05 contract price was 3,124 (+1) yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis was 96 (- 11) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was - 27 (+1) yuan/ton [19][23] - Demand: Second - hand housing transactions remain high, new housing transactions are rising, indicating a recovery in market confidence and a bottoming - out signal in the real estate market. Land transaction area remains low. The overall demand is slowly recovering [24][28] - MS weekly data: Demand is rising, supply is at a low level due to low profits, and inventory is being depleted [31] - Production profit: The rebar spot profit last week was 106 (- 7) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 64 (+1) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 7 (+1) yuan/ton [39] 3.4 Hot - rolled Coil - Basis and spread: The demand is gradually entering the peak season. Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3,290 (+10) yuan/ton, the 05 contract futures price was 3,299 (+2) yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis was - 9 (+8) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was - 11 (- 5) yuan/ton [41][45] - Demand: Overseas steel prices are rising, the export profit of Chinese hot - rolled coils is expanding, exports are increasing, and trading volume has improved significantly. The sentiment of spot and futures speculation has also improved [46][52] - MS weekly data: Hot - rolled coils maintain low production, and inventory is being depleted rapidly [55] - Production profit: The hot - rolled coil spot profit last week was 14 (+13) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 89 (+2) yuan/ton [62] 3.5 Other Information - Delivery and warehouse receipts: Data on the delivery volume and futures inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils in Shanghai are provided [63] - Price differences: Information on price differences between different steel products (such as cold - hot, wire - rebar, etc.) and regional price differences is presented [65][72] - Supply - demand and inventory of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates: Data on the total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates are provided [78] - Inventory of small - variety steel products: Inventory data of various small - variety steel products such as strip steel, galvanized coils, etc. are provided [79]