Guohai Securities·2026-03-29 09:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [2] Core Views - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to impact aluminum supply, with expectations of further production cuts. Demand is gradually recovering as the market transitions into the peak season, but the inventory turning point is still awaited. The domestic aluminum oxide production capacity is on a downward trend, influenced by geopolitical factors and rising costs, which are driving up aluminum oxide prices. Long-term, the aluminum industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to limited supply growth and ongoing demand [11] Summary by Sections 1. Price - As of March 27, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $3284.5 per ton, up $92.5 from the previous week, a 2.9% week-on-week increase, and up $677.5 year-on-year, a 26.0% increase [23] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 23935.0 yuan per ton, down 85.0 yuan from the previous week, a 0.4% week-on-week decrease, and up 3215.0 yuan year-on-year, a 15.5% increase [23] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 23870.0 yuan per ton, down 160.0 yuan from the previous week, a 0.7% week-on-week decrease, and up 3190.0 yuan year-on-year, a 15.4% increase [23] 2. Production - In February 2026, the electrolytic aluminum production was 346.0 million tons, a decrease of 33.9 million tons month-on-month, but an increase of 12.0 million tons year-on-year, a 3.6% increase [53] - The aluminum oxide production in February 2026 was 660.0 million tons, down 78.5 million tons month-on-month, and down 33.5 million tons year-on-year, a 4.8% decrease [53] 3. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include Hongqiao Holdings, China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2026 are as follows: - Hongqiao Holdings: 2.49 yuan - China Hongqiao: 3.34 yuan - Tianshan Aluminum: 1.28 yuan - Shenhuo Co.: 2.56 yuan - China Aluminum: 0.92 yuan - Yun Aluminum: 2.07 yuan [6] 4. Inventory - As of March 26, the domestic main consumption area aluminum ingot inventory was reported at 1.349 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week-on-week [8] - The aluminum rod inventory in the main consumption area was 341,500 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons week-on-week, indicating a steady acceleration in the destocking trend [8]