国债期货周报-20260329

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The medium - term view on the government bond futures market is to maintain an overall outlook of fluctuating with a bearish bias due to factors such as the relatively restrained central bank monetary policy, changing inflation expectations, the orientation of medium - and long - term funds entering the market, and the inability to falsify policy expectations [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - This week, the ultra - long end of the government bond futures market has recovered, while the short - and medium - term ends have remained basically unchanged, which is in line with the previous judgment of fluctuations at the ultra - long end and stagnation at the short end. The market characteristics show that short - term stability coexists with long - term fluctuations, reflecting the game between short - term liquidity easing and long - term inflation and economic recovery expectations. The term spread has widened, and the yield curve shows a steepening trend [3][5] 2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - Not elaborated in the provided content 3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type: private funds decreased by 0.42%, foreign capital decreased by 3.15%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 3.4%. In terms of weekly change: private funds decreased by 1.92%, foreign capital decreased by 5.92%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 4.94% [9]