债券研究周报：大行再度出手买长债-20260329

Report Information - Report Date: March 29, 2026 [1] - Analysts: Yan Ziqi, Hong Ziyan [2] - Report Title: Bond Research Weekly - Big Banks Step In to Buy Long - Term Bonds Again [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - This week, the performance of treasury bonds was remarkable. The yields of 10Y treasury bonds, 10Y China Development Bank bonds, and 30Y treasury bonds' active bonds decreased by 2.25bp, 0.6bp, and 1bp respectively. This was closely related to the actions of large - scale banks. Large - scale banks net - bought 51 billion yuan of 10Y treasury bonds this week, compared with a net - selling of 36 billion yuan in the previous week (March 16 - 20). If the current trend of large - scale banks buying bonds continues, there is still about a 2bp downward space for 10 - year treasury bonds, which may stabilize the market before the upcoming special treasury bond issuance plan [6][11]. - Insurance institutions sold a large amount of 30 - year treasury bonds this week but still increased their holdings of the active bond 2500006. They mainly net - sold three old bonds: 210005, 200012, and 190010, possibly for quarter - end statement adjustment and realizing floating profits [6][12]. - For the bond market approaching the quarter - end, the yield curve is likely to remain steep under the influence of inflation expectations. Therefore, investors' mainstream choice is medium - and short - duration coupon assets and cautious attitude towards ultra - long - term bonds. In the short term, this phenomenon will continue. Without a tightening signal from monetary policy, the yield curve is likely to be repaired from short - to long - term, and the next target may be 10Y China Development Bank bonds. For 30 - year treasury bonds, note that the liquidity of 2500002 has significantly improved recently. If the active bond is switched, 2500006 may weaken relatively, and investors can transfer part of their positions from 2500006 to 2500002 and 230023 [6][12]. Section Summaries This Week's Bond Market Review - The performance of treasury bonds was excellent this week. The yields of 10Y treasury bonds, 10Y China Development Bank bonds, and 30Y treasury bonds' active bonds decreased. The actions of large - scale banks were the main reason. Large - scale banks' net - buying of 10Y treasury bonds increased, and if the trend continues, 10 - year treasury bonds may have a 2bp downward space and play a role in stabilizing the market before the special treasury bond issuance [11]. - Insurance institutions sold a large amount of 30 - year treasury bonds but increased their holdings of the active bond 2500006, mainly net - selling three old bonds, possibly for quarter - end adjustment. The bond market yield curve is likely to remain steep, and investors prefer medium - and short - duration coupon assets and are cautious about ultra - long - term bonds. The yield curve may be repaired from short - to long - term, and the next target may be 10Y China Development Bank bonds. Attention should be paid to the liquidity change of 30 - year treasury bonds and the possible active bond switch [12].