量化择时周报：继续等缩量-20260329

• The report introduces a timing model based on the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the Wind All A Index. The model identifies market conditions by observing the difference between these two averages. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 6633 and the 120-day moving average at 6485, with a difference of 2.28%, indicating a typical consolidation phase[3][7][12] - The mid-term industry allocation model highlights sectors with strong performance trends. It suggests focusing on industries related to computing power (e.g., semiconductor equipment ETF 159516.SZ, communication ETF 515880.SH), cyclical sectors (e.g., oil and gas ETF, energy chemical ETF 159981.SH), and the new energy sector. If a volume contraction signal appears, attention should shift to non-ferrous metals and military industries[3][6][8] - The report evaluates the market's valuation levels using PE and PB metrics. The Wind All A Index PE is positioned near the 90th percentile, indicating a relatively high valuation, while the PB is at the 50th percentile, reflecting a moderate valuation level[8][12] - The timing model suggests maintaining a 50% equity allocation for absolute return products based on the Wind All A Index, considering the current market environment and valuation levels[6][8][12]