有色金属周报：流动性冲击或逐步缓和，金价企稳-20260329

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [53]. Core Insights - Precious Metals - Gold: Liquidity shocks are gradually easing, stabilizing gold prices. As of March 27, the COMEX gold futures contract reached $4489.7 per ounce, a slight decrease of 0.05% month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 0.9% decrease to 1053 tons. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is intensifying, but the decline in gold prices is slowing down. It is anticipated that as market expectations regarding the Middle East situation converge, liquidity shocks in the gold market will further ease. In the medium term, geopolitical issues will elevate inflation expectations abroad, deepen U.S. fiscal problems, and weaken the dollar's credit status, maintaining the long-term pricing framework for gold. The report remains optimistic about the medium to long-term trend of gold prices [4]. - Industrial Metals: Geopolitical disturbances are intensifying, leading to volatile performance in industrial metals. As of March 27, the SHFE copper futures contract rose by 1.26% to 95930 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 427,400 tons as of March 26, while LME copper inventory stood at 360,000 tons. The global copper resource bottleneck is expected to persist. With the Middle East situation escalating and interest rate hike expectations rising, industrial metals are under short-term pressure [5][6]. - Aluminum: As of March 27, the SHFE aluminum futures contract fell by 0.4% to 23935 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 1.349 million tons as of March 26, with a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons. The geopolitical situation has become the largest black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing supply disruptions of millions of tons and increasing smelting costs. The report notes that while supply and demand expectations are converging, macroeconomic impacts remain strong, leading to a decline in aluminum prices [6]. - Tin: As of March 27, the SHFE tin futures contract rose by 5.8% to 362,500 yuan per ton. Domestic social inventory reached 9,102 tons, while LME tin inventory was 8,720 tons. The demand side is expected to benefit from the growth in tin consumption due to the expansion of AI technology. However, short-term market sentiment is heavily influenced by geopolitical factors, necessitating further clarity on the geopolitical situation [6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are stabilizing as liquidity shocks ease, with a current price of $4489.7 per ounce and a slight decrease in ETF holdings [4]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased by 1.26% to 95930 yuan per ton, with ongoing supply constraints and geopolitical pressures affecting performance [6]. - Aluminum prices decreased by 0.4% to 23935 yuan per ton, with geopolitical tensions impacting supply and demand dynamics [6]. - Tin prices rose by 5.8% to 362,500 yuan per ton, with demand expected to grow due to AI technology [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, it recommends关注赤峰黄金; for copper,关注洛阳钼业; and for aluminum,关注天山铝业, citing macroeconomic uncertainties and demand recovery as key factors [7][49].