工业硅：信息面与情绪共振，关注供给边际变化；多晶硅：下游排产趋弱，基差或将持续收敛：工业硅-多晶硅周报-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the market is currently dominated by weak reality and weak expectations. Without supply - side policy drivers or demand - side positive news, the upside space is limited. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a weakly oscillating trend. The recommended strategy is to gradually short on rebounds when the price is between 8800 - 9000 [7][8]. - For polysilicon, the market is in a supply - demand loose pattern, with the overall market continuing to be weak. In the short - term, spot transactions may decline and reach a new low. It is recommended to wait and see for new driving factors [15][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon Data Review 3.1.1 Market Conditions - The spot price of industrial silicon oscillated strongly this week. The ex - factory tax - included reference price of Chinese standard deliverable 553 was 8857 yuan/ton, a rise of 368 yuan/ton or 4.34% compared with March 19, 2026. The futures market rebounded and oscillated strongly, driving the spot price to be firm [7]. - The industrial silicon futures market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with overall weak oscillation this week. The main contract price briefly soared at the beginning of the week and then declined. As of Friday's close, it was 8625 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the beginning of the week. Market participation cooled down, with the trading volume of the main contract about 165,800 lots and the open interest around 223,200 lots [37]. 3.1.2 Influencing Factors - Macro: The performance of Dongyue Silicon Materials in 2025 was not good, with a year - on - year decline in revenue and a net loss. The downstream demand was weak this week, providing insufficient support for the industrial silicon price. The market procurement was mainly for rigid needs and small orders, and manufacturers' willingness to stock up was low [11]. - Demand: The demand from downstream industries was generally weak. The polysilicon price continued to fall, and the acceptance of raw materials was limited. The organic silicon maintained rigid - need procurement, and there were rumors that the organic silicon monomer plants might further cut production next month. The aluminum rod enterprises continued to resume production, but the overall procurement of industrial silicon increased limitedly. The export volume in February 2026 decreased compared with the previous month [11]. - Supply: The overall production this week changed little. A Yunnan enterprise stopped production, but the production reduction was not obvious due to the weekend. Currently, only 2 enterprises in Yunnan and 1 in Sichuan are in production. A northern enterprise plans to resume production in mid - April. Large manufacturers have no plans to increase or decrease production, and the industry's production capacity release is restrained [13]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slightly to 499,100 tons, a decrease of 0.6% compared with the previous week. The overall industry inventory remained at a high level, mainly concentrated in the northern social warehouses. The futures inventory as of March 27 was 111,385 tons, an increase of 25 tons compared with the previous week [13]. - Cost and Profit: The production cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week, with electricity and raw material costs forming the bottom support for the price. The industry profit was generally low this week, with obvious regional differentiation [13]. 3.2 Polysilicon Data Review 3.2.1 Market Conditions - The polysilicon futures fell rapidly this week, with more cases of selling at lower prices to increase sales volume. The market transaction center continued to move down. The spot price of Chinese P - type polysilicon was 33,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,000 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the N - type was 39,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton [15]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also declined to varying degrees this week [137]. 3.2.2 Influencing Factors - Macro: A large - scale photovoltaic project in the Czech Republic was awarded to Aiko Solar, which is expected to promote the development of the local clean energy industry [17]. - Demand: Downstream demand was generally weak. Silicon wafer enterprises were cautious in raw material procurement, mainly for rigid - need replenishment. The demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components was weak, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [17]. - Supply: This week, a factory had local equipment problems, but it had no substantial impact on production and shipment. Two manufacturers did not reach their production increase plans this month. An Inner Mongolia factory is expected to start production in May, and a Xinjiang factory has a maintenance plan in June. The overall polysilicon industry's operating rate is maintained at 30%. The production in March is expected to recover to 86,000 tons, and the production in April is expected to be around 85,000 - 88,000 tons, basically the same as in March [18]. - Inventory: The polysilicon inventory this week was 381,600 tons, an increase of 0.39% compared with the previous week. The market was in a situation of oversupply, and the inventory was accumulating day by day [142]. - Cost and Profit: The average production cost of polysilicon this week was 44,189.79 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. The gross profit and gross profit margin rebounded month - on - month to - 5,663.47 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.03% [152].