加息预期升温；国内去库明显；沪铜暂震荡：铜周报20260329-20260329

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The expectation of interest rate hikes is rising, and there is a significant inventory reduction in China. The Shanghai copper market is temporarily in a state of oscillation [1] - The copper market is affected by multiple factors, including macro - level negatives, demand - side positives, and supply - side neutral factors [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Price Data - The Shanghai copper futures price has rebounded in a volatile manner this week, but the increase is limited [9] - The copper spot price is driven by consumption, and the discount has gradually stabilized [12] 02 Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index has dropped by $1.53 per ton week - on - week to -$68.85 per ton, continuing to decline [16] - The copper concentrate port inventory is 458,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 143,000 tons, and it is lower than the same period last year [19] - The refined - scrap copper price difference has rebounded this week [20] - The estimated electrolytic copper production in China in March is nearly 1.2 million tons, a record high, with a month - on - month increase of 4.62% and a year - on - year increase of 6.51% [22] - The cumulative import of unwrought copper and copper products in China from January to February is 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [23] - The electrolytic copper spot inventory has decreased significantly this week, but it is still higher than the same period last year, and the bonded area inventory continues to decline [25] - The LME copper inventory continues to increase, and the COMEX copper inventory remains stable [26] - The operating rate of refined copper rods remains at a high level, but new orders are suppressed due to the rebound of Shanghai copper [28] - From March 1st to 22nd, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China decreased by 17% year - on - year [32] - The component production in March fell short of expectations, and some enterprises' orders decreased due to export restrictions [33] - The total production plan of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in April decreased by 3.6% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [34] 03 Macroeconomic Data - China's new social financing in February was 2.38 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 900 billion yuan, and M2 increased by 9% year - on - year [38] - The US composite PMI in March unexpectedly dropped to 51.4, and the growth of the service industry slowed down [41] - The president of the Chicago Fed said that there may be a situation where interest rates need to be raised [42]