玻璃纯碱周报-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report Glass - Bullish Logic: The Two Sessions set a positive tone, and the new construction area of the real - estate industry in 2026 may reach the bottom. The glass industry has poor profit, low valuation, several production lines have been cold - repaired, and daily production is not high. The rapid rise in crude oil prices provides a positive atmosphere and raises the expectation of cost increase [8]. - Bearish Logic: Demand is sluggish, and the market expects no improvement in 2026. Inventory is high, and forward prices are still high [9]. - View: The glass market will fluctuate within a range. It is still advisable to consider short - selling on rallies, but the downside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the spill - over effects from the outside [10]. 纯碱 - Bullish Logic: The Two Sessions set a positive tone. Production profit is low, export volume is not low, and static valuation is not high. Overseas production capacity has exited. The rapid rise in crude oil prices provides a positive atmosphere and raises the expectation of cost increase [13]. - Bearish Logic: Long - term production capacity is increasing, resulting in a loose supply. Demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass is not ideal. Inventory and production are not low, and forward prices are high [14]. - View: In the short term, the market will fluctuate within a range, but overall, supply exceeds demand. It is advisable to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the impact of the external market [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Week - level Core Points and Strategies - Glass Strategy: The cash - and - carry arbitrage has achieved significant profits. It is advisable to transfer positions to far - month contracts for rolling operations [11]. - 纯碱 Strategy: The cash - and - carry arbitrage should be transferred to far - month contracts for rolling operations. Overall, a short - biased allocation is recommended [16]. 02 Glass Data Review - Indicators: Include glass spot price, glass basis and Hubei - Shahe price difference, inventory, production profit, operating capacity and operating rate, and daily melting volume [22][24][27]. 03纯碱 Data Review - Indicators: Include market price, basis, inventory, heavy soda ash profit, operating rate and production, and glass - end daily melting volume [44][45][48]